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April 2013′s main spiral peak on April 16th turned out to be near the new moon top on April 11th and also near the low that followed on April 18th. May 2013 is showing an early spiral peak on May 3rd-4th (sell in May and go away?) and choppiness for the rest of the month. There are two eclipses this month, although the one on the 25th is only technically one since only a tiny sliver of the moon will fall within the earth’s penumbra.

Note that gray dots indicate weekends and the red square denotes the Memorial Day holiday in the US.
Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

March 2013′s main spiral peak on March 11th turned out to be near the top of the upward move – the market moved sideways for two weeks after that date. April 2013 is showing one huge spiral peak on April 16th.
Note that gray dots indicate weekends.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Chart posted without comment this month.
Note that gray dots indicate weekends.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for February 2013 show three distinct peaks at the end of consecutive weeks: on Feb 8th-9th, over the weekend of Feb 16th-17th, and Feb 22nd-23rd.
New moon is on Feb 10th and the full moon is on Feb 25th. Lately full moon has often seen a spike in the VIX volatility index.
Note that gray dots indicate weekends and the red square indicates a market holiday in the US – Presidents’ Day.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for January 2013 showed three high peaks (potential market highs or lows) but the most that can be said is that the first two peaks were roughly inline with pauses in the nearly continuous rise in prices during January. Elliott Wave counts all show the market is close to the end of the rally from March 2009, forming an ending diagonal and hitting resistance in both short and long term trendlines. Sentiment is also at a bullish extreme so we are looking for a significant top, if not in January then in February.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for January 2013 show three distinct peaks on Jan 7th, Jan 17th-18th, and over the weekend of Jan 26th-27th.
Given the 3% rally on Jan 2nd after the fiscal cliff euphoria, Jan 7th is most likely to be a significant top, possibly C of ii of the bear market wave down from the September 14th, 2012 high.
Note that gray dots indicate weekends and red squares indicate a market holiday.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for December 2012 show three high peaks (potential market highs or lows) on December 6th-7th, 15th-16th (on a weekend), and the 28th.
There was also the end of the Mayan long count on December 21st.
The market made a high on Dec 18th, and lows near the spiral calendar peak dates.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for December 2012 show three high peaks (potential market highs or lows) on December 6th-7th, 15th-16th (on a weekend), and the 28th.
I have added gray dots to indicate weekends and red squares to indicate the Christmas holidays.
There is also the end of the Mayan long count on December 21st that has been blown up in the media as a potential apocalypse but it’s really just the calendar rolling over like Y2K. I expect a huge non-event, however with the market close to a potential wave 2 retrace high, who knows, there may be some large downside movement soon as wave 3 gets going.


November 2012 spiral score peaks on November 4th and 7th were quite a good match for turns on Nov 2nd and 6th, the one on the 16th was spot on matching the low and the large peak on the 25th matched what may be the top of wave a of 2.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for November 2012 show several high peaks (potential market highs or lows) on November 4th and 7th, straddling US Election Day, on the 16th, and a huge one on the 25th that is the Sunday before after the Thanksgiving holiday. In addition to the peaks, the spiraldates scores are at a sustained high level almost all month indicating a large confluence of spirals. There are only 3 days that score below 2 and none that score zero. In addition we have two eclipses, a total solar eclipse on Nov 13th and a penumbral lunar eclipse on November 28th.

So what does all this mean? As always, market conditions immediately prior to a turning point will determine whether we should expect a high or a low. The market turned down sharply on November 4th 2008 when President Obama was elected, despite the fact that the race was quite predictable. If the market rallies between now and the election, we may see a similar effect this year.


Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for October 2012 showed a large peak on the 9th,10th, and 11th and a second smaller peak on the 26th-27th. These matched the lows for the month fairly well although the possible large decline we expected might occur didn’t happen yet.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for October 2012 show a large peak on the 9th,10th, and 11th and a second smaller peak on the 26th-27th. Given the Elliott wave picture of possibly having just completed a large ending diagonal rally on September 14th, there is an increased likelyhood of a rapid selloff and even a crash. The Oct 9th-11th turn date is about 4 days before the new moon on Oct 15th. Chris Carolan in his award-winning paper Autumn Panics has identified the time about 55 hours before the new moon as a likely stopping point of a crash. If it does happen the larger Elliott Wave picture indicates this would be the beginning of a larger bear market like the October 1929 crash was the start of the 1929-1932 bear market and not the entire bear move as the 1987 crash was.


Predictions for September 2012 only matched short term turning points at the top of the first upmove of the month on the 8th and the first low after the September 14th high on the 20th.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

September 2012 Update.



S&P500 For Aug 2011 Through Sept 2012 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.

This post updates the prediction record for the last year since the previous record summary in August 2011 that is reproduced again below. The conclusions are similar – that the Spiral Calendar is good at finding market turns, especially lows or buying opportunities in this largely rising market. It’s interesting that the best high predictions are during the short market decline prior to the October 4th, 2011 low. During that phase every one of the signals was tradable at a profit, except the green arrow on September 1st, 2011 that got the direction wrong. Close inspection of this arrow shows that after opening and trading most of the day above the 5-day moving average, the market closed below it, thus turning the arrow green. I think most traders would have expected a high and it may improve the signals to use a moving average of the open instead of a moving average of the close as is currently used.

From August 2011:

The spiral calendar has been very good at predicting market turns over the last two years based on the monthly spiraldates score charts posted on this blog. The first chart shows the record over the entire two years this blog has been published, and the second chart shows a more detailed record for 2011 only.


In general the predictions have been very good, especially at picking lows in this generally rising market and in picking many precise top days. However the predictions also include many “highs” that turned out to be only the top of an intermediate move during a rising phase. As detailed on the first chart, the turn dates are combined with a 5-day simple moving average to determine whether each prediction is for a high or low.



S&P500 For Aug 2009 Through Aug 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.



S&P500 For 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for September 2012 show two sharp peaks on the 8th and 20th.


Scores for August 2012 were about 2 days early in predicting turns so far as of Aug 25th. The lows on Aug 2nd and 10th. and the highs on the 7th and 21st were consistently 2 days earlier than spiral scores predicted.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.