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Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for February 2012 show two broad peaks around Jan 10th-13th, and Jan 20th-23rd marking likely turn dates (highs OR lows).


In January the market rose steadily so there were no turns matching predictions for Jan 5th, 18th, or 21st or for Jan 14th which we mentioned in a special post. The last turn prediction for Jan 27th still stands a chance of matching Thursday’s high on the 26th.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

The spiral calendar series originating on October 23rd, 2006 had several spirals that closely matched turn dates from the 2007 high (f12) and the subsequent bear market. Updating that chart shows that f19 in the same series falls on January 14th, 2012. This would make an ideal topping point for the rally from Oct 4th 2011.

S&P 500 Spirals From Oct 23rd, 2006

Spiral Calendar S&P 500 Spirals From Oct 23rd, 2006 – click to enlarge

Gold and silver had spiral clusters yesterday, and like Oil have another cluster in the middle of next week indicating they may be topping their rally.
US dollar has a cluster next week that may be the starting point of a new rally.

Gold – GLD

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Gold (GLD) January 4th, 2012 – click to enlarge

Silver – SLV

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Silver (SLV) January 4th, 2012 – click to enlarge

Oil – USO

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Oil (USO) January 4th, 2012 – click to enlarge

US Dollar – UUP

Spiral Calendar Clusters For US Dollar (UUP) January 4th, 2012 – click to enlarge

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for January 2012 show peaks Jan 5th, 18th, 21st, and 27th marking likely turn dates (highs OR lows)


For December spiral turn date predictions, the spiral score peak on the 7th-8th matched the actual high on Dec 5th-7th.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Correction.

The New and Full moons were inadvertently switched on the original version of the chart so the commentary about a possible crash into the new moon is moot. If one occurs then it will be into the full moon and that matches recent experience with highs at the new moon and lows near the full moon.


Original Post:
Scores for December 2011 show an early peak around Dec 7th-8th that is also about two days before the new moon and a total lunar eclipse on Dec 10th. Given the prevailing Elliott Wave counts placing us in the early stages of wave 3 of 3 down, this is a candidate for some kind of crash or rapid decline that if it occurs would be expected to bottom, at least short term, two days before the new moon. Given the premise that social mood, as modulated by the spiral calendar, controls market and social events, we may also expect some kind of deterioration in the European sovereign debt crisis coincident with a market decline around Dec 7th-8th 2011.
There is also a second spiral calendar score peak on Dec 26th.


For November spirals, the spiral score peak from Oct 31st through Nov 4th matched the top of the rally from the Oct 4th low.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

November spiral calendar dates for US stocks show a large broad peak at the start of the month, from Nov 1st-4th. Given the steep rally from the Oct 4th low, I expect the rally to top in this date range and turn lower. Later in the month there are two closely spaced peaks during Thanksgiving Week. Finally there is a peak at the end of the month.


The October predictions failed to match any market turns.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

October spiral calendar dates for US stocks show three turn dates on the 8th (a Saturday), 13th, and 20th-21st. The first and last days of the month also have scores of 3 which is above threshold (2.5) for a turn date as well.
The large peak on the 20th-21st is f1 – one lunar month or 29.5 days – from the start of the current decline on 9/20.


The only September prediction that panned out so far (writing on 9/23) is the one for a choppy month. There were enough turns for just about any date to be within a day or two of a turn, but the predictive value wasn’t very good. There’s still a good chance of a significant temporary low near the major 25th turn date.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Gold (GLD) August 23rd, 2011 – click to enlarge

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Silver(SLV) August 23rd, 2011 – click to enlarge

Gold – GLD and Silver – SLV

Gold made a sharp decline from yesterday’s high but I’m not yet convinced that was the top.
When silver made its top in the spring, the first big down day on May 2nd, closed below support at the bottom of the low prior to the top. Gold didn’t do this yet but should almost immediately if sentiment has truly changed. Also there are no spiral clusters near yesterdays highs on either the silver or gold charts, but there are several over the next week or so. Gold and stocks have been moving in opposite directions, and I don’t think gold can top until stocks decline significantly and all appetite for risk evaporates. Given current volatility, this can happen at any time, although our favored spots are this Friday, August 26th and the same lunar phase next month, near Sept. 25th.

Silver – SLV

These are momentous times in the markets and September’s spiral calendar alignments will only make things more interesting if possible. Spiral calendar clusters for US stocks occur in several peaks on September 1st, 4th (in the middle of the Labor Day holiday weekend), 8th-9th, 15th, 20th-22nd, a major peak on the 24th-26th that spans a weekend and is also centered two days before the new moon on the 27th, and finally on the 29th-30th. Given a two-day margin of error for each spiral cluster, there are few if any days this month that cannot be considered candidates for turn dates. I think we can expect a choppy month, and should just expect turns to occur near the centers of the clusters until the market changes our mind.


The large peak on the 25th with a 6.5 score – this represents 5 spirals aligned on the 25th: F5, F9, F10, F21 and F22, together with F18, and F19 on the 24th, and F13 on the 26th – is of great interest as it also falls two days before the new moon. As I wrote last month this is prime territory for the end of a panic or crash as shown in Chirs Carolan’s Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon. The exact timing (moon phases in EST) is for the new moon at 6:09am EST on Tuesday 27th September. The end of any panic is supposed to occur 55 hours earlier, plus or minus 12 hours, which is a window from 11am EST Saturday 24th, through 11am EST Sunday 25th right in the middle of the weekend. If it does turn out to be a panic, we might expect the market to close Friday after a steep decline, but then open with a bounce on Monday. Another interesting point is that the August 27th spiral score peak and the Sept 25th one are exactly F1 apart, so if we get a turn near August 27th, this would further reinforce the Sept 25th date. Both dates are in prime danger territory for a panic, and it’s not impossible that we might see two panics or at least large declines in a row a month apart, marking wave 3s of successive impulse waves down. Of course how the market behaves immediately prior to these dates is critical, so as always, predicting the direction of a turn too far ahead is difficult.


If we are entering panic territory, then there will likely be some huge rallies as well, possibly coinciding with the other spiral clusters during the month. In the first half of August, we saw daily 4-5% moves, so we can expect more of the same with huge, possibly even record volatility.


Governments are generally slow to react, but if we do see a collapse in prices, there may well be some executive actions from the US and other goverment agencies to curb program or high frequency trading, or short selling occurring after the damage is already done.


Predictions for August 2011 were for turns on the 6th, 15th-16th, and 27th. So far (writing on August 21st) we got a low on the 9th and a high on the 17th.


Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

The spiral calendar has been very good at predicting market turns over the last two years based on the monthly spiraldates score charts posted on this blog. The first chart shows the record over the entire two years this blog has been published, and the second chart shows a more detailed record for 2011 only.


In general the predictions have been very good, especially at picking lows in this generally rising market and in picking many precise top days. However the predictions also include many “highs” that turned out to be only the top of an intermediate move during a rising phase. As detailed on the first chart, the turn dates are combined with a 5-day simple moving average to determine whether each prediction is for a high or low.



S&P500 For Aug 2009 Through Aug 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.



S&P500 For 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.