Spiral Calendar Charts For S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Gold, Silver, Oil and AAPL August 26th, 2016

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions, Stocks.

Updated spiral calendar charts for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Gold, Silver, Oil and Apple Computer as of August 26th, 2016. Please click on each chart to see a full HD-size chart.
Note that there are two eclipses in September, an annular solar eclipse on September 1st visible primarily in Africa and a penumbral lunar eclipse on September 16th visible everywhere except the Americas. I have marked these on all charts with large red circles.

SPECIAL NOTE – Amibroker AFL To Plot Spiral Calendar Clusters For Any Symbol

If anyone is interested in the AFL script to plot these spiral clusters on your own system using either the free version or paid Pro version of Amibroker please contact me via email at admin at spiraldates.com.

S&P500 Spiral Calendar Chart For August 26th, 2016

The one spiral cluster came 2 days prior to the all time high in the S&P 500 on August 15, 2016. The upcoming spiral clusters in September occur 2 days before the eclipses and would be ideal turning points for any sharp decline that may develop. However we are still too near the recent high for any major decline – in Elliott Wave terms any decline would probably be a wave 1 or wave A.

August 26th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For S&P500

Nasdaq 100 Spiral Calendar Chart For August 26th, 2016

The next spiral cluster for Nasdaq-100 occurs on the September 16th eclipse day.

August 26th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For Nasdaq 100

GLD Spiral Calendar Chart For August 26th, 2016

GLD topped on August 2nd 2 days before the spiral cluster on the 4th. There are several upcoming spiral clusters in September including 2 that coincide on the September 16th eclipse.

August 26th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For GLD

SLV Spiral Calendar Chart For August 26th, 2016

SLV is a new chart this month. You can see that several highs and lows this year have coincided with spiral clusters and silver also has upcoming clusters that align with the eclipse days.

August 26th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For SLV

OIL (USO) Spiral Calendar Chart For August 26th, 2016

USO made a low on August 3rd two days after a spiral cluster and then made a high on August 19th one day before another cluster. USO has one upcoming cluster on September 9th bisecting the eclipse days.

August 26th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For OIL (USO)

AAPL Spiral Calendar Chart For August 26th, 2016

AAPL rallied through 2 clusters in August to a high on the 16th. There are several upcoming cluster in September including one on the second eclipse day.

August 26th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For AAPL

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

Comments (2) Aug 28 2016

Possible Short Term Top Today In S&P500

Posted: under Microspirals, Misc/Admin, Predictions, Stocks.

The microspirals in SPXL are showing a lot of possible turning points today which may prove to be at least a short term top.

SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart August 11th, 2016

SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For August 11th, 2016

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

Comments (2) Aug 11 2016

The Spiral Calendar Explained Part One

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions, Stocks.

The Spiral Calendar

The Spiral Calendar, discovered by Chris Carolan has been used to make some remarkable forecasts such as the timing of the all time top in oil and the time of maximum panic in the 2008 crash. It is a time relationship between emotionally-extreme high and/or low points in stock and commodity market prices based on the lunar month of 29.53 days (synodic lunar month). The underlying mechanism is not understood, but is assumed to be built into our DNA due to millions of years of genetic algorithm training by the lunar cycle. Note that it’s not simply a monthly cycle that repeats, it’s more subtle/complex. Also note it does not concern planetary alignments or astrology – it’s purely based on the lunar cycle which has large physical affects here on earth. It’s easy to calculate into the future based on price data from 30 days ago or older.

Calculation Of The Spiral Calendar

Starting from any high or low point in prices, a series of time intervals are calculated that are equal to the lunar month 29.53 days, multiplied by the square root of fibonacci numbers. So the Fibonacci numbers are:

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…

and the square roots of these numbers are (number 1 is only shown once from here on):

1.00, 1.41, 1.73, 2.24, 2.83, 3.61, 4.58, 5.83, 7.42, 9.43, 12.00…

multiplying by 29.53 the number of days in the lunar month we get (in days):

29.53, 41.76, 51.15, 66.03, 83.53, 106.47, 135.33, 172.19, 219.00, 278.59, 354.37…

So these time intervals in days are added to a starting point that is an important high or low to produce a series of future dates that are possible highs or lows (i.e. trend change dates or turn days).

A Spiral Time Series In SPY Starting on February 11th, 2016

Starting from the stock market low on February 11th, 2016 (marked by the vertical purple line), we have plotted the future (as of Feb 11th) spiral dates as vertical red lines on the chart, each labelled f1, f2, f3 etc. corresponding to “square root of Fibonacci 1 month”, “square root of Fibonacci 2 months” and so on. We omit the square root sign for simplicity. So each of the spiral dates f1 through f8 corresponds to a potential high or low point in prices:

Spiral High or Low
f1 short term high on March 14th
f2 low of March 24th +1 day
f3 either high of April 1st +4 days or low of April 7th -2 days
f4 high of April 20th -1 day
f5 low of May 6th exactly
f6 high of May 31st exactly
f7 low of June 27th exactly
f8 high of August 1st exactly
f9 September 17th, 2016
f10 November 16th, 2016
f11 January 30th, 2017
f12 May 7th, 2017
f13 September 6th, 2017
f14 February 9th, 2018
f15 August 27th, 2018
f16 May 6th, 2019

As you can see the alignment of these spiral dates (or just “spirals”) with actual high and low points in prices is good. Always within plus or minus one or two days and often exactly on the day of a high or low. Now on Feb 11th, 2016, it was not obvious that that day was going to be a low, however maybe two or three days later after the market had rallied, you could interpret Feb 11th as a low and draw spirals into the future using only data up to say Feb 17th to predict that future dates as shown in the table would be turn days or trend change days. This single spiral calendar series is a useful prediction, but there are other important high and low dates in the past and other series of spirals from those dates. The next article will explore how the individual spiral dates from different spiral date series form clusters that enhance the predictive ability. If a given future date is predicted to be a turn date by more than one spiral date series, it’s more likely to be an important turn.

Note: click on the chart to see the full size version as browsers sometimes omit detail in scaled-down graphics.
A Spiral Time Series In SPY Starting on February 11th, 2016

Comments (0) Aug 07 2016

Microspirals For AMZN 15Min Chart

Posted: under Microspirals, Past Market Analysis, Stocks.

AMZN 15 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For August 5th, 2016

This chart shows remarkable alignments of spiral clusters with highs and lows especially in the early part of the chart from July 29th through August 2nd where every cluster aligns with a high or low. However the latter part of the chart is less clear cut and the current direction is hard to determine. To test whether this is just chance alignments I looked further back and the second chart is for the whole month of July and it too has plenty of remarkable alignments although not quite as uniformly “spot-on” as the ones in the early half of the first chart.
AMZN 15 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For August 5th, 2016

AMZN 15 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For July, 2016

AMZN 15 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For July, 2016

SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For August 5th, 2016

Here is an update of the SPXL 5 minute chart we posted about earlier, here and here. Note that the timescale in the future section on the right of the chart is based on daily charting, and each bar is only 5 minutes. So this chart predicts turning points in Monday August 8th’s trading at 10 minutes after the open, 50-60 minutes after the open, and 85 minutes after the open. A turning point can be a high or low, and the best guide is to fade whatever trend appears into a time bar with a spiral cluster. Our best guess for Monday would be an initial gap up or rally reaching an initial high after 10 minutes. The 50-60 minute after open turn might be a pullback or secondary rally and similarly for the 85 minute cluster.
SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For August 5th, 2016

[UPDATE August 9th near the close] – SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart

Here is an update of the SPXL 5 minute chart we posted above. As predicted the turns happened 10 mins and 60 mins after the open on Monday August 8th, 2016.
SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For August 8-9th, 2016

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

Comments (0) Aug 06 2016

Spiral Calendar Charts For S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Gold, Oil and AAPL August 2nd, 2016

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions, Stocks.

Updated spiral calendar charts for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Gold, Oil and Apple Computer as of August 2nd, 2016. Please click on each chart to see a full HD-size chart.

S&P500 Spiral Calendar Chart For August 2nd, 2016

The large spiral cluster of eight spirals marked the top of the steep part of the move off the June low in the S&P 500 although there were two days a point or two higher at the end of the July.

August 2nd, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For S&P500

Nasdaq 100 Spiral Calendar Chart For August 2nd, 2016

Nasdaq-100 was in an uptrend for the whole month despite various spiral clusters.

August 2nd, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For Nasdaq 100

GLD Spiral Calendar Chart For August 2nd, 2016

GLD made the top predicted last month on July 6th on a spiral cluster and also made a low on a spiral on July 25th. There is only one spiral in the forecast for August on Thursday 4th that is shaping up to possibly mark a high. With another move higher Gold could be nearing completion of a three wave corrective rally off the December 2015 low.

August 2nd, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For GLD

OIL (USO) Spiral Calendar Chart For August 2nd, 2016

USO has declined sharply during July despite several spiral clusters.

August 2nd, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For OIL (USO)

AAPL Spiral Calendar Chart For August 2nd, 2016

AAPL rallied sharply despite many spiral clusters in the early part of July, which is a pattern of trending through many clusters the stock exhibits often. When the spiral clusters thin out seems to be when AAPL corrects, and August with only a few clusters and a fairly ripe rally may turn out to follow the script.

August 2nd, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For AAPL

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

Comments (0) Aug 02 2016

Spiral Calendar Charts For S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Gold, Oil and AAPL July 1st, 2016

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

Updated spiral calendar charts for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Gold, Oil and Apple Computer as of July 1st, 2016. Please click on each chart to see a full HD-size chart.

S&P500 Spiral Calendar Chart For July 1st, 2016

The spiral clusters in the S&P 500 in the second half of June hit the high one the nose, but were two days late on the lows. Looking forward the next spirals are on Wednesday and Thursday and may be the top of the post-Brexit bounce, or they may mark the bottom of the first pullback in an uptrend.

July 1st, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For S&P500

Nasdaq 100 Spiral Calendar Chart For July 1st, 2016

Nasdaq-100 spirals hit the pre-Brexit low and the high on 6/23.

July 1st, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For Nasdaq 100

GLD Spiral Calendar Chart For July 1st, 2016

GLD made a short term high one day before the cluster on Friday June 17th. There are clusters on Monday and Tuesday that may be another top (note that these charts average US holidays over the entire year).

July 1st, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For GLD

OIL (USO) Spiral Calendar Chart For July 1st, 2016

USO has a spiral cluster on July 7th.

July 1st, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For OIL (USO)

AAPL Spiral Calendar Chart For July 1st, 2016

AAPL declined as expected from the early June high but the clusters have not aligned this month.

July 1st, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For AAPL

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

A note on the staircase red and green lines appearing on this months charts which are volatility stop lines. A green up-stepping line is drawn beneath the price when the move is bullish and a red line is drawn above when the market declines. The distance from the closing price to the stop line is a multiple of the recent average true range – three times ATR(14) for bull moves and two times ATR(14) for bearish ones. If the market closes beyond a stop line then the stop applies at the next open. This avoids getting stopped out on wild intraday swings (like spike bottoms).

Comments (1) Jul 03 2016

Spiral Calendar Charts For S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Gold, Oil and AAPL June 13th, 2016

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions, Stocks.

Updated spiral calendar charts for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Gold, Oil and Apple Computer as of June 13th, 2016. Please click on each chart to see a full HD-size chart.

S&P500 Spiral Calendar Chart For June 13th, 2016

The spiral clusters in the S&P 500 in late May and early June marked the top of the strongest move that ended on May 24th and surrounded the top on June 8th. The initial decline is comparably steep to the one off the early December 2015 high.

June 13th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For S&P500

Nasdaq 100 Spiral Calendar Chart For June 13th, 2016

Nasdaq-100 did not have any large spiral clusters until the last week which doesn’t seem to align with any turn. There is a large cluster of 8 spirals on Friday 17th June.

June 13th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For Nasdaq 100

GLD Spiral Calendar Chart For June 13th, 2016

GLD made a low a couple of days after pair of spiral clusters and there is also a cluster on Friday June 17th that may be a short term top.

June 13th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For GLD

OIL (USO) Spiral Calendar Chart For June 13th, 2016

USO continued its rally into June but may have topped on June 8th in parallel with the stock market. Unusually, there are no large spiral clusters in the next month so I have included smaller spirals of only 3 aligned spirals.

June 13th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For OIL (USO)

AAPL Spiral Calendar Chart For June 13th, 2016

AAPL continued its rally as expected into a nice spiral top on May 26th and has been choppy since with some spirals aligned fairly close to the turns. Maybe the corrective rally completed on the spike high on June 6th which should initiate a fairly steep decline.

June 13th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For AAPL

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

A note on the staircase red and green lines appearing on this months charts which are volatility stop lines. A green up-stepping line is drawn beneath the price when the move is bullish and a red line is drawn above when the market declines. The distance from the closing price to the stop line is a multiple of the recent average true range – three times ATR(14) for bull moves and two times ATR(14) for bearish ones. If the market closes beyond a stop line then the stop applies at the next open. This avoids getting stopped out on wild intraday swings (like spike bottoms).

Comments (1) Jun 13 2016

More Microspirals

Posted: under Microspirals, Stocks.

Following up on Microspirals from last month here is another chart of the last three days 5 minute candles. What’s interesting is that the initial moves each day appear to terminate on spiral clusters.

SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For May 20th, 2016

SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For May 20th, 2016

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

Comments (0) May 21 2016

Spiral Calendar Charts For S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Gold, Oil and AAPL May 20th, 2016

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions, Stocks.

Updated spiral calendar charts for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Gold, Oil and Apple Computer as of May 20th, 2016. Please click on each chart to see a full HD-size chart.

S&P500 Spiral Calendar Chart For May 20th, 2016

The spiral clusters in the S&P 500 in early April turned out to be at the top of wave 3 of the advance since Feb 11th and the move completed with wave 5 on April 20th. A three wave decline has followed punctuated with spiral clusters on April 25th, May 5th and May 11th so far. The decline appears too shallow to have fully corrected the advance since Feb 11th, so a further small decline would make things look more complete.

Nasdaq-100 is in a similar position but has declined a bit more but would also look better with another small decline from here to complete a three wave correction.

GLD appears to be declining into a pair of spiral clusters late next week.

USO continues its rally despite many clusters but looks toppy.

AAPL declined impulsively from mid-April to mid-May and made a low matching a spiral cluster on May 12th. The rally since then appears corrective but incomplete.

A note on the staircase red and green lines appearing on this months charts which are volatility stop lines. A green up-stepping line is drawn beneath the price when the move is bullish and a red line is drawn above when the market declines. The distance from the closing price to the stop line is a multiple of the recent average true range – three times ATR(14) for bull moves and two times ATR(14) for bearish ones. If the market closes beyond a stop line then the stop applies at the next open. This avoids getting stopped out on wild intraday swings (like spike bottoms).

May 20th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For S&P500

Nasdaq 100 Spiral Calendar Chart For May 20th, 2016

May 20th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For Nasdaq 100

GLD Spiral Calendar Chart For May 20th, 2016

May 20th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For GLD

OIL (USO) Spiral Calendar Chart For May 20th, 2016

May 20th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For OIL (USO)

AAPL Spiral Calendar Chart For May 20th, 2016

May 20th, 2016 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Predictions For AAPL

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

Comments (3) May 21 2016

Introducing MICROSPIRALS

Posted: under Microspirals, Predictions, Stocks.

I have long thought, that since the Spiral Calendar is based on the lunar month, that it was only applicable to daily charts.
However there is nothing to prevent the same code drawing charts for any timeframe, treating any time unit as the Spiral Calendar equivalent of a day.
Here is a chart of the 5min bars for SPXL, a triple leveraged proxy for S&P500 index.
Since there is a lot more data, there are more frequent spiral clusters with larger numbers of spirals coinciding, so I have limited it to show only clusters with 5 or more spirals aligned on a single 5 minute bar. And of course this is trading time, not real time, so nights and weekends are ignored in calculating the spirals. Also I changed the moving average which is used to determine if an upcoming spiral cluster is a likely high or low to a 30 interval simple moving average (grey line).
The alignments of spiral clusters with highs and lows on this chart could just be chance, and the fact that other timeframes such as hourly, 15 minutes and 1 minute do not obviously show a similar level of alignments supports that view. However I’m going to keep monitoring these charts and will post any interesting ones.

SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For April 11th, 2016

SPXL 5 Minute Bar Spiral Calendar Chart For April 11th, 2016

If you don’t understand the charts – see the posts here and here .

Comments (2) Apr 11 2016