Spirals Align With Recent Tops Today 1/28/09

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

The low predicted in the previous post turned out to be already in on 1/20 or 1/23 depending on market, and the expected thrust lower on Monday or Tuesday didn’t happen. If you were caught short today like I was with the market already up nearly 3% by the time I checked it, the news may not be all bad as today we have alignments with several recent highs and also the 11/21/08 low. Today’s high may not be enough to complete wave E of the triangle from 11/4/08, so we may see a bit more upside first, or not.

Spiral Dates For 1/28/09 - Click To Enlarge

Spiral Dates For 1/28/09 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (2) Jan 28 2009

Close To A Short Term Low on 1/26/09?

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

Several short term spirals from recent lows align in the 1/23 to 1/27 window – f1, f3, f4, f5, and f7.

Spiral Dates For 1/26/09 - Click To Enlarge

Spiral Dates For 1/26/09 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Given the impulse down from the 1/6/09 high, this should mark a low in the above window. The move up from the 1/20 low looks corrective (as of Friday’s close we appear to be near the end of wave C of a zig-zag upwards) on the S&P 500 intraday chart.

S&P 500 Intraday Chart 1/23/09 - Copyright Yahoo.com - Click Chart To Enlarge

S&P 500 Intraday Chart 1/23/09 – Copyright Yahoo.com – Click Chart To Enlarge

Maybe we will see a sharp fifth wave downwards on Monday/Tuesday into a short term low.
According to the top Elliott Wave count this would form wave D in a triangle wave 4 that started with the election day top 11/4/08 being wave A, the 11/21/08 low B, and 1/6/09 top C. If this is right we may expect a medium term rally off a low Monday or Tuesday to form wave E of this triangle before a fifth wave down to new lows.

The top alternate EW count has us already in the fifth wave down starting with the 1/6/09 top, so we would see similar behavior – a drop Monday Tuesday followed by a rally of several days but we would label it a wave 2 upward correction.

Comments (3) Jan 25 2009

Minor Low Jan 12, 2009?

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

I am ambivalent about the Jan 10 spiral cluster forming a low at today’s low. There are a lot of spirals that align with this date but the MACD and stochastics are slightly bearish. If anything I’m expecting a minor rally that does not go higher than the Jan 6th high and then more downside. If we do rally, I will be looking for either impulsive or corrective intraday wave structure to the upside to see whether the rally is for real.

Spiral Dates Running Backwards From Jan 12th, 2009 – click to enlarge

Comments (0) Jan 13 2009

The Curious Case Of October 23rd, 2006

Posted: under Past Market Analysis, Predictions.

Does time run only forwards, or can it run backwards also? Can it run forwards and backwards simultaneously? This is the premise at the core of the movie “The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button” in which Brad Pitt’s character is born a baby but physically old, and gradually gets younger through time.
What makes it interesting is the love affair he has with Cate Blanchett’s character who lives in normal forward running time and as a young girl befriends the old Benjamin. The plot, like Titanic, is predictable, but is sustained by the roller coaster ride of the relationship as the pair age in opposite directions, sometimes they are inseparable, and at others they forget each other completely.

So what does this have to do with the spiral calendar? Take the case of October 23rd, 2006. While the date itself is unremarkable in market terms – just another day of wall-climbing somewhere near the middle of the fifth wave of the 2002-2007 rally – the spirals running backwards and forwards from this date are remarkable. Both sets align with multiple tops and bottoms very closely. The first chart (click charts to enlarge) shows spiral dates running backwards , and the second chart shows them running forward.
The obvious question is what date is the next spiral date, f16, running forwards from Oct 23rd, 2006?
The answer is May 7th, 2009. There are f12,f13,f14,f16,and f17 alignments from past highs and lows in the May 6th to May 9th range so May 7th is a very promising date spiral-wise. Given typical May weakness, I speculate that it might mark the top of the Obama Honeymoon period.

Spirals dates Running Backwards From October 23rd, 2006 – click to enlarge

Spirals dates Running Forwards From October 23rd, 2006 – click to enlarge

Comments (5) Jan 10 2009

January 2009 Spirals

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

Other spiral clusters in January include one centered on the 10th, another on the 15th, a broad one between 23-27th, and another centered on the 30th. Here is a chart showing the spiral dates for the 10th target date. Obviously this is likely to be a low, although it seems to be much too soon after the 1/6/2009 top to be the bottom of a D wave of the 4th wave triangle. Maybe the first subwave of D or subwave 1 of an impulse down from the 1/6/2009 top. In either case the low is unlikely to be worth trading as the 4th wave high is in. If on the other hand the 1/6 top is just wave a of C then 1/10 may mark wave b of C and the market will go above the 1/6 high.

Spiral dates for January 10th 2009 – click to enlarge

Comments (2) Jan 09 2009

Turn Lower Likely Monday 1/5/09

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

Spirals indicate a turning point in the 1/2 to 1/5/09 window that spans the weekend. Given the New Year rally this is likely to be a top.

Moontrader on 12/17/08 in his post “Ready To Short?” predicted a high 12/17/08 followed by a low in the 12/31/08 to 1/5/09 window based on a confluence of short spirals f3,f5,and f7 aligned with highs (for the 12/17 high) and lows (for the 1/3/09 prospective low). There are many more spirals that line up with this time – see the following charts that show spirals aligned within a day or two of 1/2/09, in particular f13 that aligns the all time high on 10/11/2007 exactly with 1/3/09.

Other lunar indicators also predict a turning point on 1/5/09 – Chris Carolan’s solunar model and Taylor tide/gravity indicators. See “More Tides” from Chris Carolan’s blog.

The Elliott Wave count is muddled currently as there are multiple ways to count the corrective rally since 11/21/08, either as a 4th wave triangle, or a double three. A rally top here is certainly compatible with the leading wave counts.

S&P 500 Short Term Spiral Dates

S&P 500 Short Term Spiral Dates

S&P 500 MediumTerm Spiral Dates

S&P 500 Medium Term Spiral Dates

Comments (12) Jan 04 2009