Feb 18 Turning Point?

Posted: under Misc/Admin, Predictions, Stocks.

There are a lot of spirals that are near alignments today Feb 18th with several of the major turning points in the bear market, although some will be even better alignments tomorrow Thursday or Friday. If we turn higher from here that means the decline from Jan 6th would have been a wave 2 or B rather than the beginning of wave 5 down to new lows. I still prefer the latter wave count and expect new lows, but it may be worth tightening the stops a little.
Spirals For S&P500, Feb 18th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Spirals For S&P500, Feb 18th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Feb 18 2009

Feb 11th-12th Spiral Cluster

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

The February Spirals post listed the 11th-12th and 15th-16th as spiral clusters. Here are short and long term charts of these clusters. The f5, f6, f14 and f19 spirals align with 11th/12th and f3, f12, and f21 align with the 15th or 16th. It’s hard to say if today is likely to be a high or low. On an intraday chart todays roller coaster a-b-c structure looks like a near perfect flat upward correction of small degree in the impulse down from the 2/9 high, and if so, today may be an even better day to short than yesterday. On the other hand there are bullish counts implying we are still in the B wave of an upward correction from the Nov 08 low which certainly fits the phoney can’t make up its mind style of the market. My money is on the short side with a stop just above the 2/9 high.

Short/MediumTerm Spirals For S&P500, Feb 12th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/MediumTerm Spirals For S&P500, Feb 12th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Longer Term Spirals For S&P500, Feb 12th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Longer Term Spirals For S&P500, Feb 12th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Feb 12 2009

Elliott Wave Free Week And Best Shorting Opportunity* This Year?

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

Elliott Wave International is having their free week from 2/11 to 2/18. This is a great chance to catch up with the current Elliott Wave count. You have to register an email address for their Club EWI which is free.

Speaking of the EW count, the high on 2/9 was likely wave 2 of 5 of the entire decline since Oct 2007, and so wave 3 of 5 down is in its early stages. This is probably going to be the steepest decline we will see this year, with new lows. As of today Wednesday 2/11, we appear to be correcting upwards in ii of 3 of 5, so after a push higher in wave c of ii of 3 of 5 this afternoon we will be sitting on probably the best shorting opportunity* of the year. See the chart in the previous post and add a 2/9 high followed by another nested wave 1 wave 2 on to the end.

Update 2/12: Possible that yesterday’s sideways move was wave iv of 1 rather than wave 2 of 5 (or 2 of 1 of 5). So today’s opening drop completed wave v of 1 and we are now in an upward corrective a of 2. I any case we should stay below the 2/9 high for the bear interpretation to remain intact.

* Please read our disclaimer.

Comments (0) Feb 11 2009

February Spirals And Possible Wave 5 Low

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

For February and early March 2009, there are several spiral clusters for the S&P500 on February 4th, 11th to 12th, 15th to 16th, 18th, 21st to 23rd and also March 1st to 3rd.

The Elliott Wave count seems to be in an intermediate fifth wave that started on January 6th, 2009, within the primary wave (circle) 1 down from the Oct 11, 2007 all-time high. How long is the fifth wave likely to be in days?

Intermediate wave 1 from Oct 11, 2007 to March 10, 2008 was 151 days and if intermediate wave 5 equals intermediate wave 1 then it would end 151 days from Jan 6, 2009, or June 6, 2009. However the minor fifth waves of intermediate wave 1 and intermediate wave 3 were both very short, quick waves, approximately a quarter the time in days of their corresponding minor wave 1 times. If we assume the current intermediate fifth wave will follow this pattern, we may expect a quarter the length of intermediate wave 1 or 151/4 or 38 days which would put the bottom of intermediate wave 5 much sooner, on Feb 13th, 2009, in the area of two of our spiral clusters, Feb 11-12 and Feb 15-16. The brevity of minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 5 from Jan 6th to Jan 20th, 2009 indicates the entire intermediate wave 5 will be a short term affair. The bottom of intermediate 5 is likely to be the best trading opportunity this year, at least until a primary wave 2 top. Of course we will need a complete 5 waves down at each degree to be confident, however given the possible surprise a short sharp 5th wave might cause, it’s worth watching closely. I will leave a target price for the bottom of wave 5 to others, but clearly if we do get a short fifth wave, we can expect new lows this week!

Elliott Wave Count For S&P500, Feb 1st, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Elliott Wave Count For S&P500, Feb 1st, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (3) Feb 01 2009