Gold Spiral Update March 24th, 2009

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions.

Gold is showing many spiral alignments here – almost all lows – possible bounce in the works?
Short/Medium Term Spirals For GLD, March 24th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For GLD, March 24th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Mar 24 2009

JP Morgan Top Aligns With Many Past Highs

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

The chart of JP Morgan is showing a high today that aligns exactly or within a day with past extremes for virtually all spirals
Short/Medium Term Spirals For JP Morgan, March 24th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For JP Morgan, March 24th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Mar 24 2009

Rocketing Higher, But Is Stage One Burning Out?

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

Today’s huge 7% rally made believers out of many bears, and the scramble to cover shorts no doubt helped the bulls propel the market higher. The question becomes, are we near the top of the first rally wave, or are we already in wave 3 with a lot more immediate upside to go? There are several spirals aligned today either exact or within a day of previous highs/lows so I slightly favor a consolidation here, but I think the rally will go much higher medium term (weeks or months).
Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 23rd, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P500, March 23rd, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Mar 23 2009

Last Of The Bearish Counts

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

The wave count since the middle of wave three has given analysts trouble – was wave 3 truly finished, what form might wave 4 be taking and so on. Now the legs of this rally have cast doubt on the predominant view that we have not yet finished wave 5 and so should expect modest new lows. There are several options, nicely summed up by Tim Knight in Possible Scenarios. Under scenario 2) there may be one more possibility for a new low in wave 5 and that is an ending diagonal starting from the Nov 4th Election Day high. This would explain the 3-wave nature of each of the major swings since Nov 4th. We would be at or near the end of wave 4 of such a diagonal with a sharp down move in wave 5 most likely starting today or tomorrow. There is a spiral alignment f8 with the said Nov 4th high to lend this some weight. However wave 4 has already exceeded 0.618 of wave 2 which would be 792 in the S&P500. All the other counts are varying degrees of bullish.

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 19th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P500, March 19th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (2) Mar 19 2009

Top of Wave A Of The Rally

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

The low arrived a couple of days sooner than I expected, but otherwise seems right on target in terms of percentage and duration for a wave (4) or A of (4) rally. Short term spiral alignments (first chart) favor a top either at Friday’s high or on Monday. It could be either the top of wave A with B and C dragging out for another week or two, or we could have seen the entire wave 4 in zigzag form. Even if we have more waves to go, in terms of price we have probably already seen most of the move. Longer term spirals (f13, f14, and f15) are still aligned with the middle of last week, so it is still within the 2-3 day margin of spiral date accuracy. I’m expecting either resumption of the decline in wave 5 of 5 or a B wave week – lots of head fakes. The character of Monday’s market will likely tell us which. Any rally is likely to run into resistance overhead, so would just mean wave A is finishing higher and we are in for a more drawn out wave (4).

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 13th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P500, March 13th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 13th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 11th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Mar 14 2009

NDX Wave (4) Complete?

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

In the Nasdaq-100, Friday’s rally and today’s surge can be counted as waves A and C of a (slightly expanded) flat correction, implying either a stunning reversal lower tomorrow in wave 5, or more likely this is only wave A of a more complex wave (4) which will drag out for a week or more.
Possible Wave (4) Count, March 10th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Possible Wave (4) Count, March 10th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Mar 10 2009

Spiral Alignments In Oil From 2/18/09 Low

Posted: under Commodities, Past Market Analysis.
Tags:

The recent oil low on 2/18/09 has a lot of spiral alignments with prior highs and lows including the all time high on 7/11/08 (first chart). Another set of alignments will be in place in the next day or two, 3/10/09-3/11/09 (second chart).
This coincides with similar turning point predictions in Gold and Stocks.

Spirals For Oil (USO) Backwards From The 2/18/09 Low - Click To Enlarge

Spirals For Oil (USO) Backwards From The 2/18/09 Low – Click Chart To Enlarge

Spirals For Oil (USO) Aligned With 3/9/09 - Click To Enlarge

Spirals For Oil (USO) Aligned With 3/9/09 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (0) Mar 09 2009

Stock Market Near A Low

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

Most EW wave counts have the stock market near the end of wave 3 of 3 of 5 of the entire bear market so far, and we can expect a wave 4 of 5 rally higher soon of similar magnitude to wave 2 of 5 which lasted 14 trading days and was a significant 9% rally from the 804 low.
Spirals (first two charts) favor a low in the middle of the week, Tuesday 10th through Thursday 12th, with Wednesday’s close being the hotspot for a possible low.
There is something about the decline from the Feb 9th high that doesn’t yet count well as 1-2-3 of an impulse. Wave 3 so far is shorter than wave 1, and there a a reasonable chance that we are actually looking at a series of 1-2s implying we may get a mini-crash early next week.
There is also a tidal extreme on March 11th which according to the Taylor gravity methodology should mark a low (last chart). To read that chart, each row of squares is a day, with each square representing 30 minutes. So time moves forward from left to right during any particular day, and from top to bottom as days pass – a bit like a TV set line scan pattern or text in a (western-style) book.
The brown troughs are the low tides, and the pale blues are the high tides. Stock market lows are marked by the highest highs (palest blues) and stock market highs by the highest lows (palest browns).
I have outlined the March 11th, 2009 highest high tide with a red box. If the market declines further next week, and is at or near a low into Wednesday’s close, that would be a perfect time to cover any shorts according to the tidal/gravity model.

Update 3/8/09: This 3/11 low date also agrees with the unlabeled low in early March in Chris Carolan’s Solunar model – see the chart on his blog post at Pay Attention Or Pay The Offer.
Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 11th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P500, March 11th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 11th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 11th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

March 11th, 2009 Highest High Tide - Click To Enlarge

March 11th, 2009 Highest High Tide – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (3) Mar 07 2009

Gold Spirals Align This Weekend 3/7/09

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions.
Tags:

Gold (GLD) has a lot of spiral alignments with this weekend including exact hits on the all time high last March (f12) and last October’s low (f8). This suggests a minor top may be in and the downward correction will resume early next week. Many people including me are expecting some sort of low in stocks next week, and this would correlate with a lower fear premium in gold.
Short/Medium Term Spirals For GLD, March 7th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For GLD, March 7th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For GLD, March 7th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For GLD, March 7th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Comments (1) Mar 07 2009