Decision Time

Posted: under Commodities, Forex, Predictions, Stocks.

Things are lining up for Election Day for some kind of terminal event in the rally from the August low, either a pop higher to complete a fifth wave or a turn lower across the range of markets. The US Dollar appears to be forming a triangle that will soon end with a thrust in one or other direction.

I recommend clicking on each chart to see the enlarged version as browsers tend to do awful things to shrunken images, such as remove price bars entirely.

UUP – US Dollar

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP - US Dollar for October 29th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP – US Dollar for October 29th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Gold – GLD

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 29th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 29th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Amazon AMZN

Amazon formed a top on Oct 25th but the alignments are not the best and there may be one more pop higher into one of the the spiral clusters shown for Nov 3rd and Nov 8th.

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Amazon AMZN for October 29th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Amazon AMZN for October 29th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Dow

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For DJIA for October 29th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Dow Jones Industrial Average for October 29th, 2010 – click to enlarge

S&P 500

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 29th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 29th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Nasdaq-100

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 29th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 29th, 2010 – click to enlarge

New visitors: please see this post for a brief explanation of the spiral calendar.

Comments (1) Oct 30 2010

November 2010 Spiral Calendar Score Chart

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

The wind in the wires made a tattletale sound
And a wave broke over the railing
And every man knew, as the Captain did, too,
T’was the witch of November come stealing.

 

The Wreck Of The Edmund Fitzgerald — Gordon Lightfoot

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For November, 2010

November spiral calendar predictions show a single large broad peak centered on the US mid-term elections on Nov 2nd. Deb’s prediction in the comments section at the late August low that we would rally until the election seems likely to be spot on.

October’s continuation of the September rally lost pace but not direction, and only the last of the three main spiraldate score peaks, the one for Oct 25th marked much of a top.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Comments (2) Oct 29 2010

The First Cracks In The Dam

Posted: under Commodities, Forex, Misc/Admin, Stocks.
Tags: , , , , ,

The first cracks in the dam may be appearing in the form of the October 15th low in the US Dollar which shows the weakness that has buoyed US Dollar denominated asset prices may be over. We have tops – at least for now – in the most speculative areas, gold and silver and also AAPL Apple Computer in the stock market. If the dollar continues its rally, the major indices may last through the election before following suit.

I recommend clicking on each chart to see the enlarged version as browsers tend to do awful things to shrunken images, such as remove price bars entirely.

UUP – US Dollar

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP - US Dollar for October 22nd, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP – US Dollar for October 22nd, 2010 – click to enlarge

Gold – GLD

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 22nd, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 22nd, 2010 – click to enlarge

Apple Computer AAPL

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Apple Computer AAPL for October 22nd, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Apple Computer AAPL for October 22nd, 2010 – click to enlarge

Dow

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For DJIA for October 22nd, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Dow Jones Industrial Average for October 22nd, 2010 – click to enlarge

S&P 500

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 22nd, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 22nd, 2010 – click to enlarge

Nasdaq-100

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 22nd, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 22nd, 2010 – click to enlarge

New visitors: please see this post for a brief explanation of the spiral calendar.

Comments (0) Oct 23 2010

Has AAPL Topped?

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.
Tags: ,

Apple Computer – AAPL – has traded down 6% in extended trading after today’s close 10/18/2010 to just under $300 (not shown on chart).

Spirals appear well aligned for a possible top – spirals F4 through F9 are all aligned with highs and lows in the choppy period from the late April market high to the late August low. However since the rise from late August 2010 doesn’t count easily as 5 waves this top might only be a wave 3 top, with one more push higher to go. There are further spiral clusters on Friday this week and the following Thursday. On the other hand, we may be seeing multiple degree waves 4 and 5 as part of an extended wave 5, and the spiral alignments together with the hanging man candle today point to a likely top here.

Spiral Calendar Alignments For AAPL October 18th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Alignments For AAPL October 18th, 2010 – click chart to enlarge.

Comments (0) Oct 18 2010

Financial WMDs Round Two

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions, Stocks.

Last week’s prediction for a top has not yet come to fruition, but as mentioned then, there are more spiral calendar alignments this week and over the next couple of weeks. Looking back, equity tops often form slowly, with several spiral clusters marking the high points in head and shoulder configurations.

The timing of news this week that the mortgage mess is back, worse than before, only a few weeks before the mid-term elections is curious. The last election cycle saw a steep decline into election season while financial stability was in doubt, then a rally into election day which itself marked a top. This time we may see the opposite following the sharp rally from late August, we may now get a decline into election day, followed by a pop rally if the likely Republican gains predicted by the pollsters mean that control of Congress and/or the Senate changes hands.

Gold does not appear quite ripe for a turn yet, but the US Dollar may be.

I recommend clicking on each chart to see the enlarged version as browsers tend to do awful things to shrunken images, such as remove price bars entirely.

Dow

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For DJIA for October 15th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Dow Jones Industrial Average for October 15th, 2010 – click to enlarge

S&P 500

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 15th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 15th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Nasdaq-100

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 15th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 15th, 2010 – click to enlarge

UUP – US Dollar

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP - US Dollar for October 15th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP – US Dollar for October 15th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Gold – GLD

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 15th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 15th, 2010 – click to enlarge

New visitors: please see this post for a brief explanation of the spiral calendar.

Comments (0) Oct 17 2010

Scary DJIA Projection Based on Comparison of 1929-1932 and 2007-2010 Bear Markets

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

The future ain’t what it used to be – Yogi Berra

 

If you are looking for a Halloween fright his scary chart may provide it. It projects what the rest of the bear market may look like based on the assumption that the April 26th 2010 high was a wave 2 top matching the April 1930 top except this time at greater Elliott Wave degree. The black line is current DJIA prices from 1987 to date. The red line is the 1929-1932 bear market scaled to match in both price and time based on two points:

 

  1. The 1929 top equals the 2007 top.
  2. The April 1930 high matches the April 2010 high (wave 2)

 

The projection shows the bear market low around 8 years in the future at a price somewhere in the range of the 1987 crash (the small cliff at the left edge of the chart). The vertical scale is logarithmic, and the approximate range is 1500-15000. So this would put the bear market low in the 2000 area for the DJIA approximately an 86% drop from the 2007 all-time high. It would be equally valid to match the spike lows in November 1929 and March 2009 to each other and scale the red line based on those and the tops, which would be much more pessimistic.

 

Click chart to enlarge. Permission is granted to distribute this chart provided it is not cropped or modified other than scaling and all the text is kept intact and legible.

DJIA Projection Based on Comparison of 1929-1932 and 2007-2010 Bear Markets

Comments (1) Oct 10 2010

The Bull Stops Here

Posted: under Misc/Admin, Predictions, Stocks.

There is so much going on this weekend with the spiral calendar that I have to resort to 3 different timeframes for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 charts which are drawn for long, medium, and short term spirals respectively. I think this weekend is the prime candidate for the top from the late August low. We have had a bull move that seems as if it will go up forever, now with such wildly bullish sentiment, that on Friday, worse than expected employment numbers, indicating a floundering economy, are bullish for the market because more quantitative easing (pushing on the rope) is expected. We also have major long term spiral calendar alignments with the 12/9/1974 low (the bottom of the 1973-1974 bear market) and the 8/9/1982 low that marked the start of the huge secular bull market into the 2000 or 2007 top depending on how the waves are counted.

I’ve included a chart of Yahoo this week to illustrate the alignment now with the top of the dot com bubble. I was swing-trading Yahoo amongst other stocks on January 3rd, 2000 and the price climbed up to $500 exactly, made a few trades, and then fell back, later splitting twice, so the equivalent intraday high would be $125. That was the high point of the dot com bubble, although the broad market went up for 3 more months before also topping on March 24th, 2000. And no, I was not one of the few who bought Yahoo at $500/share!

Many other spirals align here or near here, although they are a bit spread out over about a 10-day period surrounding this weekend. I don’t rule out higher prices into the spiral alignment at the end of next week, since both Gold and The US Dollar look like they need a few more days before alignments, but I think the chances are higher for a top now – hence the headline.

I recommend clicking on each chart to see the enlarged version as browsers tend to do awful things to shrunken images, such as remove price bars entirely.

Dow

This long term chart shows the F27 and F26 alignments with the major lows of December 1974 and August 1982, as well as F22 with the January 2000 Dot Com Bubble top and F17 with the last top prior to the October 11th, 2007 all time high. See the Yahoo chart at the end of the post for a more precise example of the F22 alignment.

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For DJIA for October 8th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Dow Jones Industrial Average for October 8th, 2010 – click to enlarge

S&P 500

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 8th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 8th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Nasdaq-100

Update 9/18/2010: the original ^NDX chart linked to the previous week’s enlarged version – this has been corrected.

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 8th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 8th, 2010 – click to enlarge

UUP – US Dollar

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP - US Dollar for October 8th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP – US Dollar for October 8th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Gold – GLD

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 8th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 8th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Yahoo (YHOO)

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Yahoo YHOO for October 8th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Yahoo YHOO for October 8th, 2010 – click to enlarge

New visitors: please see this post for a brief explanation of the spiral calendar.

Comments (0) Oct 09 2010

Spiral Calendar Stock Charts For October 1st, 2010

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions, Stocks.
Tags:

Is The Wave C Top In on 9/30/2010?

Conditions and spiral calendar alignments suggest it’s possible 9/30 was the top of wave C and the end of the rally from the late August low and possibly also the start of wave 3 down. However there are also further spiral clusters in a few days time on most of the charts so we may get another pop higher.

The US Dollar has several approximate longer term alignments here so could form a low although no single day has 3 or more spiral alignments – no numbered bar.

Stock markets – Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 – all can be interpreted as having topped somewhere this last week, but all also have potential turn dates nearer the middle of the month around October 13th, as does Gold. These might coincide with the monthly spiraldates score chart that shows a peak on the 15/16th.

I recommend clicking on each chart to see the enlarged version as browsers tend to do awful things to shrunken images, such as remove price bars entirely.

UUP – US Dollar

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP - US Dollar for October 1st, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For UUP – US Dollar for October 1st, 2010 – click to enlarge

Dow

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For DJIA for October 1st, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Dow Jones Industrial Average for October 1st, 2010 – click to enlarge

S&P 500

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 1st, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for October 1st, 2010 – click to enlarge

Nasdaq-100

Update 9/18/2010: the original ^NDX chart linked to the previous week’s enlarged version – this has been corrected.

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 1st, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Nasdaq-100 for October 1st, 2010 – click to enlarge

^NSEI Nifty 50

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For ^NSEI Nifty 50 for October 1st, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For ^NSEI Nifty 50 for October 1st, 2010 – click to enlarge

Gold – GLD

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 1st, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For Gold (GLD) for October 1st, 2010 – click to enlarge

New visitors: please see this post for a brief explanation of the spiral calendar.

Comments (0) Oct 03 2010