Stocks Rally and Metals Decline – But That Probably Wasn’t The Top

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions.
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Spiral Calendar Clusters For Gold (GLD)  August23rd, 2011

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Gold (GLD) August 23rd, 2011 – click to enlarge

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Silver(SLV)  August23rd, 2011

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Silver(SLV) August 23rd, 2011 – click to enlarge

Gold – GLD and Silver – SLV

Gold made a sharp decline from yesterday’s high but I’m not yet convinced that was the top.
When silver made its top in the spring, the first big down day on May 2nd, closed below support at the bottom of the low prior to the top. Gold didn’t do this yet but should almost immediately if sentiment has truly changed. Also there are no spiral clusters near yesterdays highs on either the silver or gold charts, but there are several over the next week or so. Gold and stocks have been moving in opposite directions, and I don’t think gold can top until stocks decline significantly and all appetite for risk evaporates. Given current volatility, this can happen at any time, although our favored spots are this Friday, August 26th and the same lunar phase next month, near Sept. 25th.

Silver – SLV

Comments (4) Aug 23 2011

September 2011 Spiral Dates Scores Chart

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For September 2011

These are momentous times in the markets and September’s spiral calendar alignments will only make things more interesting if possible. Spiral calendar clusters for US stocks occur in several peaks on September 1st, 4th (in the middle of the Labor Day holiday weekend), 8th-9th, 15th, 20th-22nd, a major peak on the 24th-26th that spans a weekend and is also centered two days before the new moon on the 27th, and finally on the 29th-30th. Given a two-day margin of error for each spiral cluster, there are few if any days this month that cannot be considered candidates for turn dates. I think we can expect a choppy month, and should just expect turns to occur near the centers of the clusters until the market changes our mind.

The large peak on the 25th with a 6.5 score – this represents 5 spirals aligned on the 25th: F5, F9, F10, F21 and F22, together with F18, and F19 on the 24th, and F13 on the 26th – is of great interest as it also falls two days before the new moon. As I wrote last month this is prime territory for the end of a panic or crash as shown in Chirs Carolan’s Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon. The exact timing (moon phases in EST) is for the new moon at 6:09am EST on Tuesday 27th September. The end of any panic is supposed to occur 55 hours earlier, plus or minus 12 hours, which is a window from 11am EST Saturday 24th, through 11am EST Sunday 25th right in the middle of the weekend. If it does turn out to be a panic, we might expect the market to close Friday after a steep decline, but then open with a bounce on Monday. Another interesting point is that the August 27th spiral score peak and the Sept 25th one are exactly F1 apart, so if we get a turn near August 27th, this would further reinforce the Sept 25th date. Both dates are in prime danger territory for a panic, and it’s not impossible that we might see two panics or at least large declines in a row a month apart, marking wave 3s of successive impulse waves down. Of course how the market behaves immediately prior to these dates is critical, so as always, predicting the direction of a turn too far ahead is difficult.

If we are entering panic territory, then there will likely be some huge rallies as well, possibly coinciding with the other spiral clusters during the month. In the first half of August, we saw daily 4-5% moves, so we can expect more of the same with huge, possibly even record volatility.

Governments are generally slow to react, but if we do see a collapse in prices, there may well be some executive actions from the US and other goverment agencies to curb program or high frequency trading, or short selling occurring after the damage is already done.

Predictions for August 2011 were for turns on the 6th, 15th-16th, and 27th. So far (writing on August 21st) we got a low on the 9th and a high on the 17th.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Comments (27) Aug 21 2011

Spiraldates.com Stock Market High and Low Prediction Record

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts.
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The spiral calendar has been very good at predicting market turns over the last two years based on the monthly spiraldates score charts posted on this blog. The first chart shows the record over the entire two years this blog has been published, and the second chart shows a more detailed record for 2011 only.

In general the predictions have been very good, especially at picking lows in this generally rising market and in picking many precise top days. However the predictions also include many “highs” that turned out to be only the top of an intermediate move during a rising phase. As detailed on the first chart, the turn dates are combined with a 5-day simple moving average to determine whether each prediction is for a high or low.

S&P500 For Aug 2009 Through Aug 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions
S&P500 For Aug 2009 Through Aug 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.

S&P500 For 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions
S&P500 For 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.

Comments (1) Aug 18 2011

August 15th, 2011 Spiral Calendar Top?

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

I am reposting the August spiraldates scores chart together with an updated chart of the S&P500 with a spiral calendar grid with today as the origin and going backwards in time to illustrate the spiral calendar alignments now present that indicate we are close to the top of the rally from the August 9th low. Given the high volatility, this could be the start of a dramatic decline below the August 9th low. There is some leeway for the high and we may get some follow through to the upside Tuesday to make a high.

If that turns out to be correct and we do resume the decline, the last turn date in the month on August 27th, is two days before the new moon, which is the perfect time for the end of a panic or crash according to Chris Carolan’s paper Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon. It would be one or two lunar cycles earlier than the Autumn panics mentioned in the paper, but the same day in the lunar month.

A high now might instead be a less dramatic top, of say wave A of the upward correction also.

Update 8/18/2011: So the Spiral Calendar came through again and picked the top of the rally on the nose or a day early since some indices topped on the 17th rather than at the high on Monday 15th. Shorting the close any day this week would have been an excellent trade. Now that we have a sharp decline of 4+% the next question is whether or not we take out the low last week at 1101.54 SPX. So far the EW count could be that we are starting a 5th wave down to a new low, or that we are just in wave b of a larger wave 4 with the move from 8/9-8/17 as wave a. Given the size of today’s decline (4%), I think the wave 5 scenario is more likely.

S&P500 For August 15th 2011 With Spiral Calendar Grid Backwards In Time
S&P500 For August 15th 2011 With Spiral Calendar Grid Backwards In Time – click chart to enlarge.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For August 2011
Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For August 2011 – click to enlarge.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Comments (10) Aug 15 2011

Gold Parabolic For How Long?

Posted: under Commodities, Predictions.
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Gold – GLD

Gold is now parabolic and everyone thinks it will go to the moon. A top will occur at some point when gold follows silver and rolls over and that may be closer than most think. There is a spiral cluster centered on tomorrow Thursday August 11th, 2011 that may mark the top of a wave 3 given the steepness of the rise.

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Gold (GLD)  August 10th, 2011

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Gold (GLD) August 10th, 2011 – click to enlarge

Comments (0) Aug 10 2011

US Stocks Start Melting Down

Posted: under Predictions, Stocks.

US stocks had a mini-crash of 4-5% today August 4th. The spiral calendar indicates they may make a short term low tomorrow Friday August 5th, 2011. We think this is the beginning of the second or third leg down in the continuing bear market from the 2000 or 2007 top depending on which index you are looking at.

DJIA

Spiral Calendar Clusters For DJIA As Of August 4th, 2011

Spiral Calendar Clusters For And Spiral Calendar Alignments Backwards From August 4th, 2011 For DJIA – click to enlarge

S&P 500

Spiral Calendar Clusters For S&P 500 As Of August 4th, 2011

Spiral Calendar Clusters For And Spiral Calendar Alignments Backwards From August 4th, 2011 For S&P 500 – click to enlarge

Nasdaq 100

Spiral Calendar Clusters For Nasdaq 100 As Of August 4th, 2011

Spiral Calendar Clusters For And Spiral Calendar Alignments Backwards From August 4th, 2011 For Nasdaq 100 – click to enlarge

Comments (9) Aug 04 2011

US Dollar Spiral Calendar Alignments For Recent Low

Posted: under Forex, Predictions.

The US dollar rally accelerated higher today August 4th 2011, which due to 4-5% decline in stocks is being labeled “Crash Day” in some circles, although it may well prove to be only “Gathering Speed Day” with a true crash still to come. The recent low on July 26th shows good spiral calendar alignments drawn backwards in time, adding confidence that that date was a significant low. The auto spiral projections for the next 20 trading days show two clusters on August 9th and 26th. August 9th may be an initial high (likely temporary and short term).

US Dollar UUP

Spiral Calendar Clusters For US Dollar UUP As Of August 4th, 2011

Spiral Calendar Clusters For And Spiral Calendar Alignments Backwards From July 26th, 2011 For US Dollar UUP – click to enlarge

Comments (0) Aug 04 2011