May 2012 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Scores Chart

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For May 2012

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for May 2012 show a total of five sharp peaks on the 6th, 10th, 14th, 23rd and 27th. Note that peaks in the score are supposedly more likely turn dates (highs OR lows) in the market.

Scores for April 2012 showed show a broad peak from the 5th-8th, missing the actual low on the 10th, and multiple higher sharper peaks on the 17th, 22nd-23rd, and 26th with the jury still out on the latter.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Comments (4) Apr 25 2012

April 2012 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Scores Chart

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For April 2012

[Posted late, on April 7th] I had not planned to continue these posts but there have been several requests to continue, so I am posting the April chart.

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for April 2012 show a broad peak from the 5th-8th (i.e. now – possible low?), and multiple higher sharper peaks on the 17th, 22nd-23rd, and 26th. Note that peaks in the score are supposedly more likely turn dates (highs OR lows) in the market.

Scores for March 2012 showed three peaks around the 2nd-4th, 10th-12th, and 22nd-24th and we saw lows on the 6th, 23rd, and 29th, and highs on the 19th and 27th. So one hit out of three, although March 2nd would have traded well as a high, even though it was slightly lower than the actual high on Feb 29th.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Comments (8) Apr 07 2012

Spiral Calendar Clusters No Better Than Chance.

Posted: under Stocks.

I hesitate to post this on April 1st, because I expect people will take it as a joke, however I’ve recently come to the conclusion that spiral calendar clusters are no more likely to match market highs or lows than dates chosen at random. As evidence I have added some statistics to the chart showing the percentage of spiral clusters that match a high or low, either to the day, or on the second line, within 1 day plus or minus. I also show for any date within the window chosen at random, the chance of that date being a high or low. For the approximately 24 year period shown, spiral clusters in the S&P 500 are almost exactly as good as dates chosen at random at predicting highs and lows. Any visual evidence of frequent matches, such as I posted in the Citigroup chart can be attributed to chance, since smaller samples may appear to do better without being statistically significant.

The number of spiral calendar clusters we would expect to match highs or lows probably should be treated as a Bernoulli process statistically, although I am not certain about the assumption of independent trials. The chance number quoted in the chart is just the chance of a single trial, or single date chosen at random, being a high or low.

Spiral Calendar Alignment Hit Probability For S&P 500, 1988-2012

Spiral Calendar Alignment Hit Probability For S&P 500, 1988-2012 – click chart to enlarge.

The chart may be distributed according to the Creative Commons by attribution commercial license 3.0 provided the Spiraldates.com legend is retained in its original form and/or the entire chart is a link to Spiraldates.com.

Comments (3) Apr 01 2012