Spiral Calendar Clusters No Better Than Chance.

Posted: under Stocks.

I hesitate to post this on April 1st, because I expect people will take it as a joke, however I’ve recently come to the conclusion that spiral calendar clusters are no more likely to match market highs or lows than dates chosen at random. As evidence I have added some statistics to the chart showing the percentage of spiral clusters that match a high or low, either to the day, or on the second line, within 1 day plus or minus. I also show for any date within the window chosen at random, the chance of that date being a high or low. For the approximately 24 year period shown, spiral clusters in the S&P 500 are almost exactly as good as dates chosen at random at predicting highs and lows. Any visual evidence of frequent matches, such as I posted in the Citigroup chart can be attributed to chance, since smaller samples may appear to do better without being statistically significant.

The number of spiral calendar clusters we would expect to match highs or lows probably should be treated as a Bernoulli process statistically, although I am not certain about the assumption of independent trials. The chance number quoted in the chart is just the chance of a single trial, or single date chosen at random, being a high or low.

Spiral Calendar Alignment Hit Probability For S&P 500, 1988-2012

Spiral Calendar Alignment Hit Probability For S&P 500, 1988-2012 – click chart to enlarge.

The chart may be distributed according to the Creative Commons by attribution commercial license 3.0 provided the Spiraldates.com legend is retained in its original form and/or the entire chart is a link to Spiraldates.com.

Comments (3) Apr 01 2012