October 2012 Spiraldates.com Spiral Calendar Scores Chart

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For October 2012

Spiraldates.com spiral calendar scores for October 2012 show a large peak on the 9th,10th, and 11th and a second smaller peak on the 26th-27th. Given the Elliott wave picture of possibly having just completed a large ending diagonal rally on September 14th, there is an increased likelyhood of a rapid selloff and even a crash. The Oct 9th-11th turn date is about 4 days before the new moon on Oct 15th. Chris Carolan in his award-winning paper Autumn Panics has identified the time about 55 hours before the new moon as a likely stopping point of a crash. If it does happen the larger Elliott Wave picture indicates this would be the beginning of a larger bear market like the October 1929 crash was the start of the 1929-1932 bear market and not the entire bear move as the 1987 crash was.

Predictions for September 2012 only matched short term turning points at the top of the first upmove of the month on the 8th and the first low after the September 14th high on the 20th.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

Comments (12) Sep 28 2012

Spiraldates.com Stock Market High and Low Prediction Record Update September 2012

Posted: under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

September 2012 Update.

S&P500 For Aug 2011 Through Sept 2012 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions
S&P500 For Aug 2011 Through Sept 2012 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.

This post updates the prediction record for the last year since the previous record summary in August 2011 that is reproduced again below. The conclusions are similar – that the Spiral Calendar is good at finding market turns, especially lows or buying opportunities in this largely rising market. It’s interesting that the best high predictions are during the short market decline prior to the October 4th, 2011 low. During that phase every one of the signals was tradable at a profit, except the green arrow on September 1st, 2011 that got the direction wrong. Close inspection of this arrow shows that after opening and trading most of the day above the 5-day moving average, the market closed below it, thus turning the arrow green. I think most traders would have expected a high and it may improve the signals to use a moving average of the open instead of a moving average of the close as is currently used.

From August 2011:

The spiral calendar has been very good at predicting market turns over the last two years based on the monthly spiraldates score charts posted on this blog. The first chart shows the record over the entire two years this blog has been published, and the second chart shows a more detailed record for 2011 only.

In general the predictions have been very good, especially at picking lows in this generally rising market and in picking many precise top days. However the predictions also include many “highs” that turned out to be only the top of an intermediate move during a rising phase. As detailed on the first chart, the turn dates are combined with a 5-day simple moving average to determine whether each prediction is for a high or low.

S&P500 For Aug 2009 Through Aug 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions
S&P500 For Aug 2009 Through Aug 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.

S&P500 For 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions
S&P500 For 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.

Comments (2) Sep 22 2012