Spiraldates.com Crash Watch July 5th 2013 Update

Posted: July 6th, 2013 under Stocks.

Current Market Compared To Past Crashes

The rally continued into the seasonal strength around July 4th, however a spiral turning point is due now, and the waves can be counted as an extremely bearish 1-2-i-ii implying a wave iii of 3 down is going to start next week. Other alternate wave counts suggest that the June 24th low was the bottom of wave 1 and so we may bounce higher before wave 2 completes. The most bullish count is that the June 24th low was the end of the correction, and we are going to make a new high in a bull wave 5 continuation of the rally off the 2009 low.

See also my earlier comments.

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  1. I am little confused now, so are we looking at a crash or a new high? What would tell is the direction and by when?

    Comment by RD — July 7, 2013 @ 6:00 am

  2. With Elliott Wave there are always alternate possible counts, and in most cases with both bullish and bearish implications.
    The spiral calendar turning point indicates that now may be the top of the current rally and the EW count indicates the decline could be very sharp – one of Taleb’s black swans.
    Obviously, if we make a new high, I think the crash scenario is off the table.
    Any rally or sideways trade short of a new high still counts best as wave 2 and I would look to one of the next turning points in the July spiral calendar scores chart for the start of wave 3 down.


    Comment by Admin — July 7, 2013 @ 8:54 am

  3. In 1929 as well as 1987 the crash took exactly 35 to 45 days to complete from Point 1.00 (Fraction of High Close). That said what is the start date (Point 1.00) in 2013. We can then have 35 – 45 days calcuated from that Point to understand when this crash will get complete.

    Comment by Rajesh — July 13, 2013 @ 2:24 am

  4. In 2013 the starting point was the May 22nd high in the S&P 500, but since it went to a new high the crash watch is off at least for now.
    Assuming the decline from May 22nd to the June 24th low was a wave 4 at some degree, we need to finish a wave 5 rally before we can expect any significant downside.


    Comment by Admin — July 13, 2013 @ 8:44 am

  5. The new high expected is 1600 . Can that be the new high for another crash watch and a completion of the wave 5 rally

    Comment by dee — July 14, 2013 @ 8:56 am

  6. Can you please post the August chart. Thanks

    Comment by pcp — August 1, 2013 @ 1:52 am

  7. Hi Dave…wondering when you will post August dates? I’m looking forward to it! Maybe you are on vaca…?? Thanks!

    Comment by k.s. — August 4, 2013 @ 4:36 pm

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