Stock Market Near A Low

Posted: March 7th, 2009 under Predictions, Stocks.

Most EW wave counts have the stock market near the end of wave 3 of 3 of 5 of the entire bear market so far, and we can expect a wave 4 of 5 rally higher soon of similar magnitude to wave 2 of 5 which lasted 14 trading days and was a significant 9% rally from the 804 low.
Spirals (first two charts) favor a low in the middle of the week, Tuesday 10th through Thursday 12th, with Wednesday’s close being the hotspot for a possible low.
There is something about the decline from the Feb 9th high that doesn’t yet count well as 1-2-3 of an impulse. Wave 3 so far is shorter than wave 1, and there a a reasonable chance that we are actually looking at a series of 1-2s implying we may get a mini-crash early next week.
There is also a tidal extreme on March 11th which according to the Taylor gravity methodology should mark a low (last chart). To read that chart, each row of squares is a day, with each square representing 30 minutes. So time moves forward from left to right during any particular day, and from top to bottom as days pass – a bit like a TV set line scan pattern or text in a (western-style) book.
The brown troughs are the low tides, and the pale blues are the high tides. Stock market lows are marked by the highest highs (palest blues) and stock market highs by the highest lows (palest browns).
I have outlined the March 11th, 2009 highest high tide with a red box. If the market declines further next week, and is at or near a low into Wednesday’s close, that would be a perfect time to cover any shorts according to the tidal/gravity model.

Update 3/8/09: This 3/11 low date also agrees with the unlabeled low in early March in Chris Carolan’s Solunar model – see the chart on his blog post at Pay Attention Or Pay The Offer.
Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 11th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P500, March 11th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 11th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Medium/Long Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 11th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

March 11th, 2009 Highest High Tide - Click To Enlarge

March 11th, 2009 Highest High Tide – Click Chart To Enlarge

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3 Comments »

  1. Thanks for another great post.

    We were definitively in a 3 impulsive wave down stead of a C of 4 up. Too bad I did not really participate materially. You were right all along. I agree some type of correction upward will probably happen very soon after this extensive carnage.

    Joe

    Comment by Joe — March 8, 2009 @ 3:32 pm

  2. Looks like the wave 3 low is in with this morning’s huge rally 3/10/09 (up around 5% across the board as I type).
    It arrived one or two days earlier than I was expecting and I was caught short. Now the question becomes is it worth covering at this price or just remain short in expectation of a B-wave of a flat or perhaps more downside in wave 5.
    I think the rally should last a couple of weeks, although I think we have had most of wave A already. So I expect a B wave that is a lot longer than a few hours, but whether it will be a flat, going back near the Monday low, or a zig-zag or a more complex correction is anyone’s guess.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — March 10, 2009 @ 8:12 am

  3. […] low arrived a couple of days sooner than I expected, but otherwise seems right on target in terms of […]

    Pingback by Top of Wave A Of The Rally — March 14, 2009 @ 7:55 pm

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