Last Of The Bearish Counts

Posted: March 19th, 2009 under Predictions, Stocks.

The wave count since the middle of wave three has given analysts trouble – was wave 3 truly finished, what form might wave 4 be taking and so on. Now the legs of this rally have cast doubt on the predominant view that we have not yet finished wave 5 and so should expect modest new lows. There are several options, nicely summed up by Tim Knight in Possible Scenarios. Under scenario 2) there may be one more possibility for a new low in wave 5 and that is an ending diagonal starting from the Nov 4th Election Day high. This would explain the 3-wave nature of each of the major swings since Nov 4th. We would be at or near the end of wave 4 of such a diagonal with a sharp down move in wave 5 most likely starting today or tomorrow. There is a spiral alignment f8 with the said Nov 4th high to lend this some weight. However wave 4 has already exceeded 0.618 of wave 2 which would be 792 in the S&P500. All the other counts are varying degrees of bullish.

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P 500, March 19th, 2009 - Click To Enlarge

Short/Medium Term Spirals For S&P500, March 19th, 2009 – Click Chart To Enlarge

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  1. Martin Armstrong has a turn date of April 19,2009. What if anything does the spirals say about that date or time period?

    Comment by Aaron Brickman — March 22, 2009 @ 8:59 pm

  2. Yes – there is a large group of spiral alignments in the 4/15 to 4/26 range – I’ll post a chart nearer the date:

    f1: 4/17 (assuming 3/19 is a top)
    f3: 4/16
    f4: 4/26
    f5: 4/16
    f6: 4/21
    f7: 4/22
    f8: 4/22
    f9: 4/25
    f10: 4/25
    f11: 4/19
    f12: 4/21
    f13: 4/17, 4/26

    f18: 4/16
    f19: 4/21
    f20: 4/15
    f21: 4/22
    f22: 4/23
    f23: 4/18

    Comment by Admin — March 22, 2009 @ 9:53 pm

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