Is July 27th, 2010 Top Only Wave 3?

Posted: July 28th, 2010 under Predictions, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for July 27th, 2010

Spiral Calendar Turn Dates Chart For S&P 500 for July 27th, 2010 – click to enlarge

Well we have a top of sorts at yesterday’s opening surge. However the downside action since then looks more corrective than impulsive, which leads to the possibility of the top being only wave 3 of C of the upwards correction since the July 1st 2010 low. The above chart for July 27th shows the most likely turn dates as calculated directly from the chart data instead of the spreadsheet methods used for the Spiraldates Score charts. There are several more likely turn dates in the near future – the red vertical bars just to the right of the last date on the chart – that are for the next 10 trading days. The largest bar is on Friday July 30th 2010 which may be the best candidate for a wave 5 top if the market does turn higher.

New visitors: please see this post for a brief explanation of the spiral calendar.

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3 Comments »

  1. I agree with your view. A top may be in if wave five doesn’t exceed wave three, unlikely. Today’s action does not appear motive although.

    I recently purchased the Spiral Calendar book and will study it when it arrives in the mail. I like your scoring method. If it isn’t too much trouble, could you explain it or direct me to where it is explained on the site. Also, I’ve studied Ermanometry which has some similarities and big differences with this approach. (If you haven’t heard of or studied Ermanometry, you can download free pdfs “Log Spiral’s in the Stock Market” and “Compound Pivot Points” from Ermanometry.com. Other than that, I’m a mathematician willing to see the market as something other than a random walk even if that means the tools to best understand market action superficially resemble numerology. Presently, I’m trying to “derive” all the Elliott rules from a set of simple constraints. There should be a reason why wave 2 in a motive wave can’t be a triangle but in wave 4 it can be, etc. Timing, price and form are probably all related somehow to the golden spiral.

    Comment by Jason — July 28, 2010 @ 9:29 am

  2. Correction…

    Today‚Äôs action does not appear motive although it IS possible to count 5 waves up over the past week and the action today could be impulsive a series of 1 2s with complicated 2s. In a nutshell, I don’t know but I’m already short.

    Comment by Jason — July 28, 2010 @ 9:43 am

  3. I use two similar but separate methods to produce these charts.

    The monthly Spiraldates score charts are based on a spreadsheet that contains the dates of previous highs and lows (chosen subjectively) in the S&P 500, DJIA, and for data prior to 1928, other stock markets as well as some historical dates such as the Dutch tulip mania and the South Sea Bubble. The spreadsheet calculates the projected spiral turn dates from each of these dates and then the number of turn dates for each date in the target month is calculated. Since the data can be choppy, and spirals can align within a day or two, I use a 3 day window to smooth the data, with half of yesterday’s and tomorrow’s scores added to today’s full score to arrive at the values plotted on the chart.

    I recently created a new chart type that is derived for any market symbol purely from the chart data (no subjective choice of prior highs and lows). A high or low score is calculated for each date, and then the dates that are above an absolute threshold value are used as starting points for spiral calendar projections similar to the subjectively chosen highs and lows in the previous method. Then dates that have the most projected turns are plotted as red or green bars depending on whether the price is above or below a moving average. Height of the red and green bars shows the relative number of turns on that date. There’s no smoothing at present.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — July 28, 2010 @ 5:51 pm

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