August 2010 Spiral Calendar Score Chart

Posted: July 30th, 2010 under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For August, 2010

August spiral calendar predictions show score peaks (possible market turn dates) on the 6th/7th and 26th/27th, and as in July the middle of the month looks very choppy with minor peaks on 11th/12th and 16th/17th. It promises to be a busy month for traders!

For July the spiraldates score peak on the 15th matched the closing high exactly and was one or two days after the nearly identical intraday highs on the 13th and 14th. The second peak on the 27th marked a high exactly – whether or not it is the minor wave 2 top preceding a large decline remains to be seen.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

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27 Comments »

  1. What about the low points, such as August 14th? Do they correspond with anything?
    Thanks.

    Comment by joe — July 31, 2010 @ 10:45 am

  2. Nothing notable – just much less likely to be a high or low.
    Perhaps more likely to be part of a continuous trend, or lower degree oscillations/range trading.
    I think it’s difficult practically to know in advance which turn dates will be highs and which lows – you really have to wait until the day, when it becomes clear from the action leading into a potential turn date.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — July 31, 2010 @ 11:08 am

  3. This is very interesting calculations and I appreciate the New Moon Full Moon aspects. Question, although your work is excellent, I’m the type of trader that likes to know how its calculated. Does the book give the formula calculators to the calendar spiral and is it easily programed into excel spreadsheets? I would like the ability to recreate your same graph for August.
    Gary

    Comment by Gary — August 1, 2010 @ 6:49 am

  4. The book does give the formula and in fact appendix A of the book gives the number of days for each of the spiral intervals from f1 (approx. 29.53 days – one synodic month) up to f39 which is approximately 643 years. It’s a simple calculation for a spreadsheet, but you also need a list of previous highs and lows which can take a while to work out from past data. It can be somewhat subjective, deciding which dates to include as highs and lows. Once you have that you can look for clusters of predicted turn dates (past high or low date + Nth spiral interval) in the future month of interest and tally and plot them. This last step I do by hand since my Excel skills (now I use Open Office Calc) aren’t up to automating that. I have in the past dumped the entire table of predictions into a file and used a scripting language like awk or perl to figure out the spiral clusters. I now have a proprietary indicator script for Amibroker that does all this automatically based on any chart and produces the “new style” charts I post here, but I am not planning to release this.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 1, 2010 @ 7:52 am

  5. I’m new in this site so I have lot of question..In August calendar it is howing Aug 6/7 & Aug 26/27 as a turn date. During that time spiraldates score is 5. You mean turn date will be applicable when score will be 5 or more? What about score of 3.5 during Aug 11/12 & Aug 16? What about Aug 14 score of 0? Can spiral date score be negative?
    What does it mean by turn date? Does it mean market will turn direction from top/bottom on that day? Your line diagram is moving up & down with date. Doest it mean market will be up if it is up and market will be down if it is down..

    Comment by Deb — August 2, 2010 @ 8:00 pm

  6. The score measures how many spiral dates cluster on a particular day, but the number is arbitrary since it is a smoothed value that includes the days either side. Larger numbers (peaks) are more likely to be turn dates – either a market high or a low. I don’t think you can predict whether a turn date will be a market high or a low until shortly before the date. Score cannot be negative.
    For further info read the introductory posts referenced at the bottom of each post or go back to the the beginning of the blog.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 2, 2010 @ 9:21 pm

  7. More great stuff. Thanks again!

    Comment by Cal — August 3, 2010 @ 6:16 am

  8. Thanks for explaining..

    Possible turn date August 06/07. Tomrrow is August 06. Can we get some indication possible market turn direction? As I understood turn would be opposite to the market direction of last couple of weeks. It means possible turn direction would be downside, Is my understanding correct?

    Comment by Deb — August 5, 2010 @ 5:39 pm

  9. I am expecting a possible top tomorrow Friday 6th Aug.
    The Elliott Wave counts have us very near the end of minor wave 2 up with one more upward thrust needed to complete the count.
    The setup with the turn dates on the 6th/7th is almost too perfect.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 5, 2010 @ 5:58 pm

  10. Looks like the top was already made on Thursday 4th Aug, but the break didn’t occur until this morning Friday 6th after European markets turned sharply lower overnight.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 6, 2010 @ 7:25 am

  11. From this spiralchart, is it possible to predict how many days it will be in downtrend after this turn out date?

    Comment by Deb — August 6, 2010 @ 10:17 am

  12. Well, the spiral calendar is not much use for short term trading, by which I mean positions that last less than several days to weeks, AT LEAST. For example I have been short stocks since the beginning of May and expect to remain so for a long time.

    That said, it looked this morning Friday Aug 6th, that the top was in and a down trend had started. After the large rally that occurred later in the day I am not so sure that a top is in yet. We may have one more thrust higher still to go early next week. Spiral calendar when it works is usually only accurate within a couple of trading days, but with predictions spanning over many months or years this is amazingly accurate.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 6, 2010 @ 4:49 pm

  13. “but with predictions spanning over many months or years this is amazingly accurate.”

    Is there any spiral calendar chart posted in this site to view for many months or years?

    Comment by Deb — August 8, 2010 @ 8:45 pm

  14. A couple of examples are the April 26th top that is f16 from the 10/11/2007 top (see http://spiraldates.com/?p=405) and also the remarkable series of alignments originating on 10/23/2006 that is still ongoing (see http://spiraldates.com/?p=37, and an update http://spiraldates.com/?p=176).

    A long term alignment that comes to mind is the August 9th 1982 low and January 5th, 2000 top that marked the beginning and end of Cycle wave 5 at least in the Dow that are f24 apart within one day. For further examples I suggest you get the spiral calendar book by Chis Carolan. He also has a pay forecasting blog at http://carolan.org/

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 8, 2010 @ 10:51 pm

  15. SP500
    Dave,
    I have noticed a 15-day near-term cycle which seems to coincide with timing the New Moon Cycle. I use a Super Pitchfork to forecast near-term turning points and your spiral dates make excellent confluence with my other projections. I’m expecting the delivery of the Spiral Calendar Book ordered from Chris directly and can’t wait to read it.

    Comment by Gary — August 11, 2010 @ 9:59 am

  16. Can you please update charts frequently. It is so confusing to understand

    Comment by krish — August 11, 2010 @ 10:15 am

  17. […] we chart here. This was one trading day after the August 6th date predicted for a turn in our August monthly spiraldates score chart. The next spiral cluster according to that chart is on August 26th/27th. Closer in there are green […]

    Pingback by Weekly Spiral Calendar Stock Charts For August 13th, 2010 — August 13, 2010 @ 5:17 pm

  18. In your weekly spiral calendar stock chart for Aygust 13, you mentioned that “The next spiral cluster according to that chart is on August 26th/27th. Closer in there are green turn dates shown on the charts below for Monday August 16th on the Nasdaq-100, but not until Friday August 20th for The DJIA and S&P 500”.

    next turn out date is August 26/27, it is ok. But what do you mean by “Closer in there are green turn dates shown on the charts below for Monday August 16th on the Nasdaq-100”?. What do you mean by green turn date? Even I see some red mark is also there..Can you please explain.. It would be great if there is any guide or short write up on all these terminology..Thanks

    Comment by Deb — August 19, 2010 @ 3:26 am

  19. Hi,

    I just discovered your site, and I’ve been reading some old posts to get a handle on how to interpret the info …so thanks – very useful!
    Can I ask about one thing? On one of the explanatory pages you have this piece of info:

    “…intervals may align turning points in market prices with each other – for example the 1929 wave 2 high (10/11/1929) and the 1987 wave 2 high (10/2/1987) immediately prior to the respective market crashes are aligned with each other within 1 day by the 29th spiral calendar interval (f29).”

    This is fascinating. Is there a way to project this forward? How can we find the forward-looking dates for big events happening now, or due soon?
    I understand the monthly data posted above – but is there a list you have of timeframes for possibly major events and turning-points?

    Thanks again for this helpful site,

    Jem

    Comment by Mimi — August 20, 2010 @ 4:54 am

  20. To Deb:

    The green turn dates I am talking about in this case are just to the right of the last price bar on the chart(s).
    There are 10 future dates shown, with turn dates (either red or green depending on whether the market is above or below it’s 10-day moving average). Dates without any significant spiral cluster are just shown as a thin horizontal line to mark the place. Note these are the next 10 trading days, not including weekends or holidays, although the time “used” by those are allowed for in the spiral cluster calculations.

    To Jem:

    I don’t currently have a list of big future turning points, but the calculation is easy, just time-consuming to collate all the future turn dates, a process I do mostly by hand.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 20, 2010 @ 8:37 am

  21. […] and Thursday and Friday for the Dow. These latter two on the 26th/27th are the ones shown in our monthly chart for August 2010. Nasdaq-100 isn’t showing any near term spiral clusters/likely turn dates. The blue vertical […]

    Pingback by Weekly Spiral Calendar Stock Charts For August 20th, 2010 — August 20, 2010 @ 6:12 pm

  22. Would you please also post the monthly spiral date calendar for the S&P? If I am not mistaken, the monthly charts that you post are for the DOW only… correct?

    Comment by Mike — August 21, 2010 @ 4:23 am

  23. I think the monthly chart applies to both the Dow and S&P500 since the dates of highs and lows which are all chosen by a human looking at the charts are the same for both in almost all cases. What is different about the weekly charts is that the choice of high and low dates is done by computer, and for example the number of lower days before and after a high affects which dates are chosen as highs. So depending on how high or low a particular market goes could influence whether or not a particular date is used as a base for a spiral grid to point to other dates. This is the reason that the 3 indices we chart weekly show different spiral clusters/turn dates. It is possible also that as time goes forward and more lower days are added after a particular high, say the April 26th high this year, that that high date gains more significance in the computer’s eye and can change the spiral clusters shown for other dates, although any such difference should be fairly small. I think the two biggest difference between the weekly charts and monthly charts are first in the choice of high and low dates for decades before 2000 where the monthly charts only use the few most significant highs and lows, but the weekly charts use every minor ripple potentially. Secondly, the weekly charts may ignore significant highs or lows that are close to an even higher high or lower low since the algorithm requires a high or low to have significant number of lower or high days respectively EITHER SIDE of the high or low.
    I hope this helps explain somewhat why there is a difference between the monthly and weekly charts.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 21, 2010 @ 8:01 am

  24. Next turn out date is 26/27 August. It means market is going to move upside either by tomorrow/day after tomorrow. Am I right?

    Comment by pipso — August 25, 2010 @ 10:02 am

  25. I’m new in this site. Trying to understand spiral date score chart..Market rallied hard end of the day. Does it mean turn out date started today (Aug 25), one day early? It means we have some upside from here.. Any comments pls

    Comment by pipso — August 25, 2010 @ 12:06 pm

  26. I’m new on this site. I’m trying to understand spiral date score chart. As per chart it is mentioned August 26/27 is turn out date. But today market bounced back hard from low. Does it mean turn out date started one day before on August 25? It means market will remain in upside until next turn out date. Is my understanding correct?

    Comment by pipsous — August 25, 2010 @ 4:36 pm

  27. If you look at the last chart I posted with the history of all the predictions over the last year, it shows that turn dates often mark the ends of strong moves, but not always changes in trends. So I would say if the rally continues, that the turn occurred a day earlier than predicted, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more downside before the week is out, maybe making some short term low. Any rally is likely to be underwhelming until volatility spikes way higher than it is currently.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 25, 2010 @ 4:52 pm

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