September 2010 Spiral Calendar Score Chart

Posted: August 29th, 2010 under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For September, 2010

September spiral calendar predictions are dominated by a single large peak with a 5.5 score on Sept. 12th 2010. However there is also a week with a sustained score in the 2.5-3.5 range from Sept 3rd to Sept 9th spanning the Labor Day holiday weekend with US markets closed on the 4th-6th, and minor peaks on the 17th/18th, 22nd, 24th and 30th. This suggest two periods of choppy action, with perhaps a more significant turn in the middle. As always we will have to see how the market is positioned as we come to these turn dates.

For August the spiraldates score turn date on the 6th/7th (Fri/Sat) matched the high on Monday 9th within one trading day. It’s too early to tell if Friday’s high will be a turn to match the August 26th/27th turn date. Looking back to the resolution of the July predictions, the July 27th turn date matched a high exactly, although it was only a short term one preceding the August 9th top.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

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36 Comments »

  1. Thanks for posting spiral date chart of September. You mentioned that It’s too early to tell if Friday’s high will be a turn to match the August 26th/27th turn date. But I think Friday’s low (NOT HIGH) is perfectly matching with turn out date as 27th August. Market turned direction from down to up from 27th and it will move sideways and bit higher until next turn out date on Sept 12. From Sep 12 onwards it will start big own leg..

    Comment by Deb — August 29, 2010 @ 1:38 pm

  2. Seasonal strength in the week prior to the Labor Day holiday would support your case for a rally from here to the Sept 12th turn date. I just read the action late last week as a small degree corrective rally and think we have some more downside to go yet. Also as I mentioned in the weekly chart post, if I’m wrong, I want it to be on the short side.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 29, 2010 @ 2:50 pm

  3. Thanks for this. Where do the 3.5 and 0.5 scores come from? Why not 3 or 4? Can a day be a half spiral???

    Comment by El Eef — September 3, 2010 @ 6:51 am

  4. It’s a slightly smoothed score for the number of spiral alignments falling on that date and not the number of spirals itself.
    Since spirals are often off by a day or two and the data can be very choppy, I add half the scores from the days before and after to each day to arrive at the scores for the charts I post monthly. This seems to give better results. However I’m amazed how precise spirals can be. An example is the oil market that I just posted charts for. Multiple highs and lows only a few days apart accurately align with two spiral grids from a prior high and a prior low.

    Comment by Admin — September 3, 2010 @ 7:41 am

  5. Following up on the first comment on this post by Deb. It looks like you are right and we are rallying for a while, as you say likely into the 9/12 turn date. I wasn’t convinced until the big up day on Wednesday 9/1 and the wave count still looks corrective to the upside, meaning the entire rally will likely be retraced to the downside later in the month.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 3, 2010 @ 7:47 am

  6. As Sept 12 (Turn out Date) is on Sunday so I think market will pick up on Friday or Monday. Then it will move south..Lets see:)

    Comment by Deb — September 9, 2010 @ 7:38 am

  7. It certainly is shaping up for a potential top either Friday or Monday. VIX is in position to give a sell signal.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 9, 2010 @ 7:44 am

  8. I think the same thing. I think today’s high is top of the market otherwise we will make top tomorrow (Very little higher than today’s high).

    Comment by Deb — September 9, 2010 @ 10:42 am

  9. S&P made an equal high of yesterday @ 1110.27 as of now. I think today’s high is the max before market turn direction as per turn out date on Sep 12..Lets see:)

    Comment by Deb — September 10, 2010 @ 6:44 am

  10. I have a question on spiral date chart score. This month it is showing 5.5 which is higher compared to all last 4 months. If score is higher then the direction change will be massive compared to low score direction change. Is it like that?

    Comment by Deb — September 10, 2010 @ 7:09 am

  11. Chris Carolan says in the Spiral Calendar book that the magnitude of events is generally proportional to the magnitude of the spirals, i.e. longer-term spiral alignments produce larger events. The Sept. 12 date has F6, F10, F12, F22 and F31 spirals the latter two originating in 1999 and 1916 respectively, and also F16 falling on 9/11/2010. So this is potentially a large event/turn which certainly meets the expectation for a wave 2 top before what most Elliott Wave analysts expect to be the largest decline in decades and maybe in our lifetimes. Carolan also suggests that spirals separated by a small even number (2,4, or 6) make a more reliable cluster, and the F6, F10, F12, F16 group meet that criterion. As for the size of the score peak, 5.5 here, I don’t know if it makes the turn more significant, other than the analysis of the individual spirals above.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 10, 2010 @ 8:11 am

  12. Which books do I need to calculate spiral chart score? I want to do practice..Thanks

    Comment by Deb — September 10, 2010 @ 9:37 am

  13. Today S&P made high 110.88 which is higher than yesterday’s high er than yesterday’s high (1110.27). If turn out date is perfect then today’s high is top for the market for shprt term. As per turn out date we will move south from Monday. Lets see. last turn out date it worked perfectly..

    Comment by Deb — September 10, 2010 @ 12:06 pm

  14. There’s really only one, The Spiral Calendar by Chris Carolan which is linked in the Amazon ad in the upper left of the page (has my amazon affiliate id in there).
    I highly recommend the book, although the formula itself boils down to the square root of a Fibonacci number (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,…) multiplied by the number of days in a synodic month (new moon to new moon) that is 29.53 days approximately.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 10, 2010 @ 6:02 pm

  15. […] predicted in the September monthly spiraldates score post, things are just beginning to line up nicely with the Sept. 12th predicted turn date for a turn […]

    Pingback by Spiral Calendar Stock Charts For September 10th, 2010 — September 10, 2010 @ 9:11 pm

  16. Today’s high on S&P is 1123.87, though 30 mins left of market closing. As per spiral chart it is top of the market until next turn out date. Market should go down until next turn out date. Lets see how it works this time..

    Comment by Deb — September 13, 2010 @ 11:32 am

  17. Dave/Admin – Can you pls let us know next turn out date? I think market will move down and sideway until next turn out date, right?

    Comment by Deb — September 14, 2010 @ 6:47 am

  18. There are several turn dates in October – roughly the 9th, 16th, and 25th. However I don’t think we should get too far ahead here, since we don’t have a confirmed turn down yet. Given the weak close, today’s high may have been it.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 14, 2010 @ 5:41 pm

  19. Future is up huge.. We might create a new high today in all index. We don’t know confirmed turn out date yet..Any idea Dave?

    Comment by Deb — September 17, 2010 @ 3:05 am

  20. Clearly the Sept 12th date wasn’t a wave 5 top – it may have been top of wave 3 and we are now making a wave 5 top, or maybe only wave i of wave 5 Friday morning Sept 17th. There is another minor score peak on Saturday 18th Sept – which is also Yom Kippur that is a classic seasonal sell date so we might be making the top today Friday 17th. But certainly the market has gone up higher and longer than expected here although on low volume. The move up has been relentless, but other than the first big up day on Sept 1st, it has been pretty much nickel and dime moves.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 17, 2010 @ 7:54 am

  21. Market is denying all the negative news and slowly moving higher. S&P moved 1040 to 11130 range with only one negative day. Not sure whether today’s high is turn out date or not..I think FED/GOVT will keep this market up until election.

    Comment by Deb — September 17, 2010 @ 8:43 am

  22. I just found this site and looked at the August Spiral Chart which worked very well. I agree with you Deb and I’m not really sure if the market will push higher or lower first. Question for you Dave, I noticed the score 5.5 on Sept 12 and was waiting on a big decline or top from that date. Can FED/GOVT being in the market change this or push it back some since we have been flat all week for options expiration? Thanks a lot

    Comment by Matt — September 17, 2010 @ 9:43 am

  23. I think governments can affect the short term – but I doubt if that will extend to the election – 47 days.
    Medium and long term the market is too big even for govt. Also governments are slow to react to surprises – Robert Prechter thinks the major decline will happen too suddenly for Bernanke to organize the helicopter drops, even if there is no gridlock.
    That said the government is part of the social mood that drives the markets – so any Elliott Wave or Spiral Calendar structure should account for government action also.

    Comment by Admin — September 17, 2010 @ 9:59 am

  24. […] top predicted for Sept. 12th in the September monthly spiraldates score post has proved elusive so far, although there is a secondary score peak for tomorrow Saturday Sept. […]

    Pingback by Spiral Calendar Stock Charts For September 17th, 2010 — September 17, 2010 @ 8:39 pm

  25. Could you update the Spiral Calendar for Oil (uso) ?

    Comment by Billybob — September 17, 2010 @ 10:14 pm

  26. I think Govt/Fed won’t allow any major pull back (5-10%) until election. We might see very small pull back on the way to a new high..Not sure whether any turn out date is going to work any more or not..

    Comment by Deb — September 20, 2010 @ 7:50 am

  27. I agree with you Deb. I think we pull back around Spy 111 before we run up more. I have a question what do the low scores on the chart mean? Like the 0 score on Sept 14, 27, 28? Are those also a bottom or top? Thanks a lot

    Comment by Matt — September 20, 2010 @ 3:59 pm

  28. The spiral scores represent the likelyhood of a turn, either high or lower. The peaks are not highs and the troughs (zero as you mention) are not lows, just relative likelyhood of a market turn. I use a simple 10 day moving average and expect a high (turn lower) when the market is above the average and vice versa for below the average. So a peak spiraldate score when the market is above the average is a likely high, and a peak spiraldates score with the market below the average is a likely turn higher. This rally since late August is overdue for a turn, and if we get one, there will be a full corrective Elliott Wave pattern in place, most likely a double three. It could extend further – into a triple three, but if there’s going to be any further surprise it most likely will be on the downside.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 20, 2010 @ 6:48 pm

  29. Dave -What do you mean by double three in your above post? One more question – Is this same spiral score chart applicable to any stock market in the world like China, India, Singapore, Japan etc? Each market behave in different way. Like Indian stock market is making everyday a new hight. Thanks

    Comment by Deb — September 20, 2010 @ 7:20 pm

  30. A double three is an Elliott Wave corrective pattern – bear market rally in this case, that forms as two sets of three waves connected by a seventh wave. It tells us that this isn’t a new bull market and that the rally since either the end of May or the beginning of July will be completely retraced to the downside by the next impulsive wave that should begin soon. If you want to learn about Elliott Waves than I recommend Elliott Wave International that has some free courses if you register at their site.

    The spiraldate score charts that I post each month are based on the DJIA prices and the technique is to use spreadsheets and manually picking prior highs and lows and while most US stock markets are similar the predictions really only apply directly to the DJIA.
    I also have an automatic program that picks highs and lows automatically, and calculates spiral turn dates purely based on that market, and can be applied to any symbol available through Yahoo data. These are the charts I post each Friday. I will try and do a post featuring some foreign markets – let me know which Yahoo symbols in particular you are interested in. Posting them takes some effort so I can only post a few at a time.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 20, 2010 @ 11:19 pm

  31. Thanks a lot Dave. Would you pls post chart for “S&P CNX NIFTY(NSE: ^NSEI)”.
    My question was whether spiral scorechart will be same across global stock market or not.

    Comment by Deb — September 21, 2010 @ 8:04 am

  32. Thank you for providing this information for free. It is a valuable service, so your efforts are appreciated.

    Comment by Jeff — September 21, 2010 @ 9:52 am

  33. I also want to say Thank You for providing this site. Based on the Spiral Chart today might me a short term top. We will have to see whats going to happen next week.

    Comment by Matt — September 24, 2010 @ 7:48 am

  34. Dave/Admin – Long time no post. Are you ok?

    Comment by Deb — September 28, 2010 @ 4:14 pm

  35. Thanks for your concern, but I am fine. Made two posts Thu and Fri last week. I’ll be posting the October spiraldates score chart in the next couple of days.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 28, 2010 @ 9:17 pm

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