August 15th, 2011 Spiral Calendar Top?

Posted: August 15th, 2011 under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

I am reposting the August spiraldates scores chart together with an updated chart of the S&P500 with a spiral calendar grid with today as the origin and going backwards in time to illustrate the spiral calendar alignments now present that indicate we are close to the top of the rally from the August 9th low. Given the high volatility, this could be the start of a dramatic decline below the August 9th low. There is some leeway for the high and we may get some follow through to the upside Tuesday to make a high.

If that turns out to be correct and we do resume the decline, the last turn date in the month on August 27th, is two days before the new moon, which is the perfect time for the end of a panic or crash according to Chris Carolan’s paper Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon. It would be one or two lunar cycles earlier than the Autumn panics mentioned in the paper, but the same day in the lunar month.

A high now might instead be a less dramatic top, of say wave A of the upward correction also.

Update 8/18/2011: So the Spiral Calendar came through again and picked the top of the rally on the nose or a day early since some indices topped on the 17th rather than at the high on Monday 15th. Shorting the close any day this week would have been an excellent trade. Now that we have a sharp decline of 4+% the next question is whether or not we take out the low last week at 1101.54 SPX. So far the EW count could be that we are starting a 5th wave down to a new low, or that we are just in wave b of a larger wave 4 with the move from 8/9-8/17 as wave a. Given the size of today’s decline (4%), I think the wave 5 scenario is more likely.

S&P500 For August 15th 2011 With Spiral Calendar Grid Backwards In Time
S&P500 For August 15th 2011 With Spiral Calendar Grid Backwards In Time – click chart to enlarge.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For August 2011
Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For August 2011 – click to enlarge.

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  1. The 2.5 reading on the 11th produced nothing and the market continued higher into friday the 12th. Do the lower scores not work for small moves?

    Comment by Chris — August 15, 2011 @ 9:48 pm

  2. It depends on what other spiral clusters are around – if there are higher spiraldates score peaks, then those tend to be where the market reverses.
    On the other hand, if the 2.5 spiral score is the highest peak around, it may mark a turn.
    In general I think you expect too much precision in matching the market movements – picking the major swing highs and lows each month is probably as far as this can go. There are some long term relationships with amazing precision though – for example the pre-crash highs immediately before the 1929 and 1987 crashes are related by F29 + one day (9/3/1929 and 8/26/1987 correction 10/11/1929 and 10/2/1987).


    Comment by Admin — August 16, 2011 @ 8:40 am

  3. Understood and thank you.

    So it it best to monitor direction into the high number turn dates and play a reversal either up or down.

    Comment by Chris — August 16, 2011 @ 8:57 am

  4. Hi Dave,

    So, 26th seems to the end of current downtrend?

    Comment by Jacob — August 19, 2011 @ 4:20 pm

  5. Thank you for your interesting comments. Regarding this month for August 15-17th, in the green box there is twice 4.5. I assume that on that dates 4 cycles are coming together but why four and a Half? Can you please explain.

    Comment by david — August 20, 2011 @ 3:32 am

  6. Reply to Jacob – yes in a nutshell – however only if we continue to decline from here. I would expect a low within one to two trading days of the 27th, which means Friday 26th most likely but maybe Monday 29th or another day either side of these. In addition to being a spiral calendar cluster there is a new moon on Aug 29th – actually at 10:04pm August 28th Eastern Standard Time. Carolan’s autumn panics paper shows evidence that panics and crashes tend to bottom about 55 hours before the new moon plus or minus 12 hours. This puts the window for a low from 3am Friday morning on the 26th, to 3am the next morning Saturday 27th EST.


    Comment by Admin — August 20, 2011 @ 8:49 am

  7. I take the raw number of spiral alignments on each day, and apply a simple 3-day smoothing that gives clearer, less ambiguous or choppy peaks. So the 4.5 number is actually the score on that day, plus half the scores on the days either side, and this results in the .5.


    Comment by Admin — August 20, 2011 @ 8:53 am

  8. Thank you, Christopher.

    Comment by david — August 22, 2011 @ 3:12 am

  9. Hi Dave, market rallied in last three days, so there is good chance that it can tank on 26th (tomorrow) and recover intraday or on Monday?

    Comment by Jacob — August 25, 2011 @ 4:34 am

  10. Well time is getting short for it to tank on our schedule. We had a down day Thursday 8/25 with a bearish ending near the low, but it was scarcely 2% down for the day so hardly tanking yet. Unless Bernanke lays an egg tomorrow in his Jackson Hole speech I doubt we can go down fast enough to complete a full fifth wave down in just a day – maybe subwave 3 of 5 in one day. But the market is boss and if it wants to go down, nothing Bernanke says will worsen or prevent it – as Robert Prechter puts it, “Fed control over the economy is an illusion.”


    Comment by Admin — August 25, 2011 @ 6:37 pm

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