September 2011 Spiral Dates Scores Chart

Posted: August 21st, 2011 under Predictions, Spiraldate Score Charts, Stocks.

Spiral Calendar Daily Scores For US Stocks For September 2011

These are momentous times in the markets and September’s spiral calendar alignments will only make things more interesting if possible. Spiral calendar clusters for US stocks occur in several peaks on September 1st, 4th (in the middle of the Labor Day holiday weekend), 8th-9th, 15th, 20th-22nd, a major peak on the 24th-26th that spans a weekend and is also centered two days before the new moon on the 27th, and finally on the 29th-30th. Given a two-day margin of error for each spiral cluster, there are few if any days this month that cannot be considered candidates for turn dates. I think we can expect a choppy month, and should just expect turns to occur near the centers of the clusters until the market changes our mind.

The large peak on the 25th with a 6.5 score – this represents 5 spirals aligned on the 25th: F5, F9, F10, F21 and F22, together with F18, and F19 on the 24th, and F13 on the 26th – is of great interest as it also falls two days before the new moon. As I wrote last month this is prime territory for the end of a panic or crash as shown in Chirs Carolan’s Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon. The exact timing (moon phases in EST) is for the new moon at 6:09am EST on Tuesday 27th September. The end of any panic is supposed to occur 55 hours earlier, plus or minus 12 hours, which is a window from 11am EST Saturday 24th, through 11am EST Sunday 25th right in the middle of the weekend. If it does turn out to be a panic, we might expect the market to close Friday after a steep decline, but then open with a bounce on Monday. Another interesting point is that the August 27th spiral score peak and the Sept 25th one are exactly F1 apart, so if we get a turn near August 27th, this would further reinforce the Sept 25th date. Both dates are in prime danger territory for a panic, and it’s not impossible that we might see two panics or at least large declines in a row a month apart, marking wave 3s of successive impulse waves down. Of course how the market behaves immediately prior to these dates is critical, so as always, predicting the direction of a turn too far ahead is difficult.

If we are entering panic territory, then there will likely be some huge rallies as well, possibly coinciding with the other spiral clusters during the month. In the first half of August, we saw daily 4-5% moves, so we can expect more of the same with huge, possibly even record volatility.

Governments are generally slow to react, but if we do see a collapse in prices, there may well be some executive actions from the US and other goverment agencies to curb program or high frequency trading, or short selling occurring after the damage is already done.

Predictions for August 2011 were for turns on the 6th, 15th-16th, and 27th. So far (writing on August 21st) we got a low on the 9th and a high on the 17th.

Explanation for new visitors: See June 2010 Post.

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27 Comments »

  1. You might be right about a crash into late September, but generally periods around the new moon are bullish (this has been statistically proven), so it is more likely to be a top around a new moon than a bottom.

    Comment by fred — August 22, 2011 @ 2:35 pm

  2. I’m not seeing any inconsistency between expecting a low 2-3 days before a new moon and the new moon being bullish.
    If you expect a top at the new moon then that would be bearish, right?

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 22, 2011 @ 4:55 pm

  3. The new moon period (bullish period) starts 7 days before the actual new moon. The 7 days prior and after are the most bullish period in the lunar calendar, which was proven by statistical research. We’re about 3 days into the new moon period now which explains the bullish price action.

    Comment by fred — August 23, 2011 @ 5:11 pm

  4. Yes I’ve also looked at market price vs moon phase and did notice a slight price dip just after third quarter moon, but the effect is tiny on the order of one or two percent as I recall, and doesn’t preclude any particular month doing anything.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — August 23, 2011 @ 7:25 pm

  5. Since the August 2011 new moon time proved to be bullish, do you think that the September new moon (peak in chart) will as well? Or might we expect a downturn in markets or something more drastic like a panic downward?

    Comment by mark — September 1, 2011 @ 8:47 am

  6. Well I think Chris Carolan has shown that the time a couple of days before the new moon has proven to be the time major panics end. But first you need a panic. Having said that, the EW count is getting quite ripe either near the end of a wave 4 of 1 (with wave 5 down to new lows below Aug 9th lows) or 2 of some degree counting the Aug 9th low as the end of wave 1 which is even more bearish. So there’s a good chance of downside, and possibly of panic. The great thing about spiral clusters and new moons is you can wait and see what happens, and if you get the expected downside, plan on exiting at a specific time.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 1, 2011 @ 8:48 pm

  7. Hello Admin/David – Sept 25 turn out date has 6.5 spiral score. Today is Thursday ( Sept 22), we are basically one day ahead of weekend or turn out date. We are already in panic mode and market declined almost 7-8%. Do you think that this panic will end over the weekend and we will start rally onMonday as per spiral score chart..Thanks for your excellent chart.

    Comment by Deb — September 22, 2011 @ 10:36 am

  8. Yes – if we continue to decline tomorrow Friday, I might cover my shorts at the close. This bout of selling has been slightly less intense than the July-August decline so it’s probably a wave 5 to match Jul-Aug’s wave 3. On the other hand if things get more intense to the downside tomorrow then I might hang on in case we are already done with (possibly multiple) waves 1 and 2 and are starting 3 down.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 22, 2011 @ 4:10 pm

  9. Thanks for your update..I’m also bit confused whether it is wave 5 or we are done with 1,2 and started wave 3. if i see NASDAQ index then it looks like we are at wave 3. Say if it is wave 3 and but turn out date on Sept 25. In that case how turn out date will work if market continiously slide down even on Monday onwars.. Thanks again for your insight..

    Comment by Deb — September 23, 2011 @ 5:37 am

  10. Hi Dave, when will you be posting the october spiral score chart?

    Comment by steve — September 23, 2011 @ 3:05 pm

  11. Hopefully this weekend :-)

    Comment by Admin — September 23, 2011 @ 3:35 pm

  12. I’m expecting a low sometime early next week if the spiral turn date is to be believed – and within around a week in any case.
    For various markets this may be a different EW wave.
    For S&P500 I’m expecting the end of wave 5 of wave 1 down from the May 2nd high. So maybe a multi-month wave 2 rally to follow.
    For Nasdaq, it may be wave 2 of wave 3 of wave 1 down from the May 2nd high. Elliott Wave degrees can be difficult when a new trend is becoming established.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 23, 2011 @ 4:54 pm

  13. Hi since friday was a volatile day and ended up slightly higher what do you think will happen around the 26th of sep. Are setting ourselves for a major rally???? any thoughts

    Comment by dharshyni peries — September 24, 2011 @ 4:40 am

  14. Yes – although definition of major rally is a corrective rally that partially retraces the decline since the May 2nd top.
    But first we need a bit more down side to complete wave 5 down which started on 8/31.
    The 26th turn date may only be the bottom of wave 3 of wave 5 in which case the rally off the turn date would be much smaller, then more downside to complete wave 5 down, then the “major” rally.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 24, 2011 @ 8:11 am

  15. Thanks for the answer. IF the rally on the 26th is a small on and then a sell off to complete the wave 5 does it take out the bottom we have put in for the year and create a new one before the rally begins. My worry is that eveyone is expecting another 1000 point drop and if that trend is going to be fulfilled in the completion of the 5th wave

    Thanks
    Dee

    Comment by dharshyn peries — September 24, 2011 @ 12:01 pm

  16. Hello Dave – Do you think we will bottom today as per turn out date?

    Comment by Deb — September 26, 2011 @ 6:43 am

  17. As of mid-day Monday 9/26th, looks like we are still in a 4th wave correction. So I think there’s more downside to come (5th wave) so no I don’t think we’ll bottom today.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 26, 2011 @ 9:32 am

  18. I almost feel like the 9/25 turn date could match the top of wave 2 of 5 which only started at last Thursday’s low.
    Gold and silver may be bellweathers to the downside with a big decline in stocks also imminent.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 26, 2011 @ 7:56 pm

  19. Thanks Dave. In that case Sept 29 we will start downleg matching with our turn date.0

    Comment by Deb — September 27, 2011 @ 3:13 am

  20. Thanks Dave. In that case Sept 29 we will start downleg matching with our turn date.

    Comment by Deb — September 27, 2011 @ 3:14 am

  21. Hi Dave

    Have reached the bottom or is there more to go. when do we see the reversal

    Dharsh

    Comment by dharsh peries — September 28, 2011 @ 12:50 pm

  22. No – not yet “the bottom” even of the first intermediate wave down.
    Looks like the rally that started last Thursday maybe over, if not we are still in an upward correction.
    Should get a new low under the Aug 9th low that will be the end of intermediate wave 1 down from May 2nd high.
    Then we’ll have a corrective rally for a few months before the bear really gets going.
    I don’t expect “the bottom” for several years – can’t happen until all the excess credit that is now bad debt is liquidated.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — September 28, 2011 @ 4:59 pm

  23. Sep 30 had a close below aug 9th low. Is this what you were looking for before the rally begins or is there another leg down for the uptrend to happen
    Thanks Dave

    Dee

    Comment by dee — October 2, 2011 @ 5:16 am

  24. I’m going by the S&P 500 that traded at a low of 1101.54 on 8/9 but closed 9/30 at 1131.42.
    So I still think we have a leg down to go. Friday was very weak, especially near the close and especially for an end-of-quarter window dressing day when funds are supposedly buying the “winners” if any.
    Which market are you looking at?
    The European and Asian markets in general are weaker and most are already lower than their 8/9 lows, but don’t count as complete fifth waves yet.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — October 2, 2011 @ 9:27 am

  25. Hi Admin,

    Are we done with this down with any ready for upleg? Today’s low is not matching with any turn date?

    Comment by Deb — October 4, 2011 @ 9:00 am

  26. Sorry Dave was looking at the wrong date. one Oct 3rd it did close below 1101.54 and think will close below that today too. So is the down leg done or can continue on.

    Dee

    Comment by dharshyni peries — October 4, 2011 @ 10:43 am

  27. Excellent question – I think most EW analysts would say we haven’t made a good 5 wave move down yet from the 9/20 high, but there’s one guy I respect who thinks we just made an ending diagonal:

    Daneric’s Elliott Wave

    Comment by Admin — October 4, 2011 @ 12:44 pm

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