Was 3/19/12 The Market Top?

Posted: March 24th, 2012 under Predictions, Stocks.

Here is the first post with a new spiral calendar chart I have developed that displays all spirals ending in the current visible date range, but only highlights those dates that have clusters of 4 or more spirals aligned on them (the red and green vertical bars). As you can see the red and green bars appear uncannily near significant market turns in this chart. I recommend clicking on the chart to get an enlarged view. The color red or green and the position above or below the chart is chosen based on whether the close on the bar day is above or below its 7-day simple moving average. Spiral alignment clusters are also plotted 20 days into the future, with Mondays marked by the black tick marks. So the next cluster of 4 or more spirals aligned is not due until Wednesday April 4th, with additional clusters near tax day (April 15th for non-US readers).
The chart may be distributed according to the Creative Commons by attribution commercial license 3.0 provided the Spiraldates.com legend is retained in its original form and/or the entire chart is a link to Spiraldates.com.

Spiral Calendar Alignments For S&P 500 March 23rd, 2012

Spiral Calendar Alignments For S&P 500 March 23rd, 2012 – click chart to enlarge.

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4 Comments »

  1. This is totally awesome. Thanks for all of your hard work. So if I understand you correctly this current target turn date (approx March 20) stems from actual market turn dates at F11, F14, F24, and F25? I see that these F-dates are all market extremes. I think that’s what you mean, but I just want to make sure. Thank you again!

    Comment by kindo — March 24, 2012 @ 10:47 pm

  2. Yes that’s exactly right – although the target for the recent cluster (red line) is March 21 – two days after the actual high on March 19th for the S&P 500.
    The number 25 is a bit obscured by the number 24 but it’s obvious what the number is and this saves a lot of vertical space in the plot.
    I should explain that the date calculations are calendar days and the plot is trading days – weekends and holidays omitted, so there is a conversion factor from calendar date to trading date that is a slight approximation – it assumes the holidays and weekends are spread evenly throughout time. So there may be an error of as much as one trading day for any given target day.

    Dave

    Comment by Admin — March 25, 2012 @ 11:29 am

  3. Thanks for this … it’s much better than how you use to do it … which to me produced too many dates and wasn’t ‘clean’ to look at. So I much appreciate what you have done. Looking ahead, and counting foward the Mondays (black bars), it seems there is a cluster of clusters for the week begining Monday April 16. So this should be good to watch.

    Comment by Stacey — March 25, 2012 @ 2:58 pm

  4. Thanks Dave. By the way, March 19 is still the high in the NYSE Composite. As I commented on CC’s site, check the lows on 6/16 and 6/23/2011 as to how they match up with recent highs.

    Comment by kindo — March 27, 2012 @ 12:59 pm

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