This post updates the prediction record for the last year since the previous record summary in August 2011 that is reproduced again below. The conclusions are similar – that the Spiral Calendar is good at finding market turns, especially lows or buying opportunities in this largely rising market. It’s interesting that the best high predictions are during the short market decline prior to the October 4th, 2011 low. During that phase every one of the signals was tradable at a profit, except the green arrow on September 1st, 2011 that got the direction wrong. Close inspection of this arrow shows that after opening and trading most of the day above the 5-day moving average, the market closed below it, thus turning the arrow green. I think most traders would have expected a high and it may improve the signals to use a moving average of the open instead of a moving average of the close as is currently used.
From August 2011:
The spiral calendar has been very good at predicting market turns over the last two years based on the monthly spiraldates score charts posted on this blog. The first chart shows the record over the entire two years this blog has been published, and the second chart shows a more detailed record for 2011 only.
In general the predictions have been very good, especially at picking lows in this generally rising market and in picking many precise top days. However the predictions also include many “highs” that turned out to be only the top of an intermediate move during a rising phase. As detailed on the first chart, the turn dates are combined with a 5-day simple moving average to determine whether each prediction is for a high or low.
S&P500 For Aug 2009 Through Aug 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.
S&P500 For 2011 With Spiraldates.com High Low Predictions – click chart to enlarge.